Iran’s religious leadership is reeling from a new wave, fueled by severe economic deprivation and inflation, which erupted after last June’s brief war, when Israeli and US forces launched airstrikes, mainly targeting its nuclear facilities.
Despite repeated nationwide protests, which have been taking place for decades, the Iranian opposition remains fragmented, divided into rival organizations and ideological currents, without a visible and organized presence inside the Islamic Republic.
The main groups and “blocs” of the opposition
The shadow of the monarchy
The last shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, left the country in 1979 as the Islamic Revolution took hold. He died in exile in Egypt in 1980.
His son, Reza Pahlavi, heir to the so-called “Peacock Throne”, lives in the US today and is calling for regime change through non-violent civil disobedience, continued protests and a referendum on the form of a new state.
Although he has strong support in the Iranian diaspora, it remains uncertain how popular the idea of restoring the monarchy is at home. The majority of Iranians are too young to remember life before the revolution, and the Iran of today is radically different from the one the shah left 47 years ago.
Although many Iranians look back on the pre-revolutionary period with nostalgia, others vividly remember the social inequalities and repression. Furthermore, rifts exist even within pro-monarchist circles themselves.
People’s Mujahideen Organization (MEK)
The Mujahideen were a powerful left-wing organization in the 1970s, carrying out bombings against the Shah’s regime and American targets. However, they also clashed with other revolutionary forces and became isolated.
Known as the Mujahideen-e Khalq (MEK or MKO), they remain highly unpopular inside Iran. Many Iranians – even staunch opponents of the Islamic Republic – do not forgive them for their alliance with Iraq during the 1980-88 war.
The organization was the first to publicly reveal, in 2002, the existence of a secret uranium enrichment program in Iran. However, for years, there have been no signs of any substantial action within the country.
Its historic leader, Massoud Rajavi, has been publicly missing for over 20 years, while his wife, Mariam Rajavi, has taken over the leadership. Human rights groups accuse the group of “cult-like” practices and mistreatment of its members – charges it denies.
The Mujahideen are the main force behind the National Council of Resistance of Iran, which maintains an active presence in several Western countries.
Ethnic minorities
Iran’s mainly Sunni, Kurdish and Baluchi minorities have been at loggerheads with the Persian-speaking, Shiite government in Tehran for decades.
In the west of the country, Kurdish organizations have from time to time developed armed action and rebellions against the state forces. In Balochistan, on the eastern border with Pakistan, opposition to the regime ranges from peaceful Sunni clerics to armed jihadist groups with ties to al-Qaeda.
In times of mass protests, these areas are often among the most explosive. However, neither the Kurds nor the Baluch have a single, organized movement that directly threatens the power of Tehran.
Protest movements
Hundreds of thousands of Iranians have taken to the streets repeatedly in recent decades.
In 2009, after the presidential election, mass protests erupted with allegations of fraud in favor of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The “Green Movement” of the candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi was violently suppressed and he was put under house arrest, along with Mehdi Karroubi.
The movement, which sought democratic reforms within the existing system, is now considered inactive.
In 2022, a new wave of protests centered on women’s rights and the slogan “Woman, Life, Freedom” rocked the country for months. However, this movement too failed to gain a stable leadership or organizational structure, and many protesters were arrested and imprisoned.
