The government (PT) must defend the , but without tensioning the dispute to the point of compromising the Executive’s relationship with Congress.
The president seeks to attract allies from different political fields for his re-election bid in October. Upsets in the relationship with Congress hinder this effort.
The assessment presented by government officials to the Sheet is that, if the Legislature decides to reject the veto and restore the reduction in sentences, this cannot encourage a rupture between the two Powers.
Lula himself gave indications in this regard in a speech given this Thursday (8), during the event in which the project was vetoed in its entirety. The most notable beneficiary of the sentence reduction would be the former president (), .
At the ceremony, promoted to commemorate the three years since the attacks on the headquarters of Power on January 8, 2023, Lula not only did not criticize the Legislature for having approved the text but also praised Congress. In his speech, the PT member did not even mention signing the veto, which was announced by the master of ceremonies.
The PT member is rebuilding his relationship with the presidents of the Chamber, (-PB), and of , (União Brasil-AP), after a .
The rapprochement with Motta was consummated with . In the case of Alcolumbre, the frictions have not yet been 100% overcome – the president of the Senate was upset because he wanted (-MG) to be nominated for a vacancy on the (Supreme Federal Court), and Lula.
But Lula emerged optimistic from a meeting with Alcolumbre that took place on the eve of Christmas.
Despite the rapprochement, . Motta’s allies, for example, believed that his presence at the event would cause stress with Bolsonarist forces, who also supported the election of the president of the Chamber last year.
The President of the Republic’s focus in his speech was democracy and themes dear to his political group, such as social inclusion. He said that his government’s actions in this area had the participation of the Legislature.
“People see a dispute of ideas or theses between the Executive Branch and the Legislative Branch and the press often claims that there is a war between the Senate, between the Chamber, and the Executive Branch,” he said.
By vetoing the reduction of sentences, Lula marks a political position that pleases his traditional electorate. Even high-ranking members of the government, however, report behind the scenes that this veto is unlikely to be maintained by Congress.
The hope of winning the veto dispute would be placed on the possibility of the deliberation by Congress having a low quorum.
The President of the Republic can block bills approved by the Legislature, but deputies and senators can reject vetoes and make the approved texts come into force against the will of the government if there are votes to that effect from the majority of members of the Chamber and the Senate.
As a veto is only overturned when the absolute majority of each House (41 senators and 257 deputies) votes to reject it, not attending the vote has the same effect as supporting the decision of the President of the Republic.
If there are no major traumas in the discussion about the veto, Lula will be better able to attract politicians from the center to his electoral project.
The assessment of government supporters is that this group wanted to support the governor of , (Republicans), in the dispute for Planalto. With the indication that the candidate will be (PL), instead of Tarcísio, centrist politicians would be more open to talking to Lula.
Even if the government does not use the weight of its machinery to force deputies and senators to support maintaining the veto, Lula’s allies will dispute the issue in public opinion.
The assessment of PT members, mainly, is that the discussion around the reduction of sentences favors the President of the Republic electorally. As Datafolha research showed last month, . In other words: it is possible to defend the veto on the relief of punishments without going against public opinion.
The deputy (Solidariedade-SP), who was the project’s rapporteur in the Chamber, . “Congress handed Brazil’s white flag of peace into Lula’s hands. Do you know what he did? He tore it up and set it on fire,” he declared.
Bolsonaro’s supporters also demonstrated. “Lula vetoed to preserve a system where the law stops being a parameter and becomes a tool. Where dosimetry does not seek justice, but punitive exemplarity. Where the calculation of the penalty serves to crush, not to correct”, said the PL leader in the Chamber, (RJ)
The topic should extend into the public debate beyond the deliberation of the veto by Congress, if the Legislature decides to reject Lula’s decision.
Government officials consider that the reduction of sentences is unconstitutional, and . Action from Planalto is unlikely.
