This Friday (9) opens a new narrative front for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in a year that already begins under electoral logic.
Even before any economic effect appears in the voter’s pocket, the pact can be explored as a communication asset to reduce resistance in the center and in productive sectors, assesses political scientist Josué Medeiros, professor at UFRJ and coordinator of the Political and Electoral Observatory (OPEL).
The agreement, negotiated since 1999 and politically unlocked at the end of 2024, provides for the gradual elimination of tariffs on around 91% of trade between the blocs and creates the basis for a free trade area that involves around 700 million people.
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In Medeiros’ reading, Lula’s immediate goal is political: the agreement works as a “vaccine” against one of the most recurrent attacks on the PT, that the left does not value the market economy, business community and the commercial integration agenda.
By claiming protagonism in the construction of the treaty, Lula now has a defensive and offensive argument, even if the practical results take time to materialize. “In an electoral campaign, you need elements to attack your opponent, but also vaccines against the attacks you will receive,” he stated.
The central point, according to the political scientist, is that campaigns are not only based on promises, but also on shields. In a polarized environment, the dispute tends to be decided by segments that are not completely closed to one side, and it is in this more central electorate that the accusation that the PT is hostile to the market usually gains traction. The agreement, in practice, becomes a stamp of credibility to refute this framework.
“It will be possible to explore statistics: this agreement will result in more Brazilian exports reaching Europe, with products arriving cheaper here. This type of data tends to have a positive impact on voters, because they are left with expectations”, he said.
This strategy can be enhanced with simple data and clippings. Today Brazilian products face high tariffs on the European market, while in the case of automobiles and up to 20% on machinery and chemicals. The electoral discourse can translate this into expectations of more access to markets and greater predictability for exporters, especially in agribusiness.
Less rejection, less controversial election
Medeiros argues that, in a polarized society, the gain does not need to come from the direct migration of votes. The most realistic goal is to reduce rejection and demobilize political panics in segments that would be unlikely to choose the PT, but may accept a Lula victory as something “manageable”, without turning the election into a contest of rupture. This tends to favor those who are in the Planalto and try to consolidate re-election, he says.
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The agreement, in this logic, speaks to the economic elite and opinion makers who press for commercial pragmatism. By favoring export chains and signaling openness, the initiative can reduce resistance in sectors such as agriculture and industry, reducing incentives for a highly aggressive campaign against the government.
“This helps those who are ahead, those seeking re-election. For Lula, it is very important that it is a normal election and not a conflict election.”
He also cited surveys that indicate broad approval of the conduct of foreign and trade policy, above the president’s voting intentions. “This shows that there are people who won’t vote for Lula, but stop thinking that Brazil will become Venezuela. It’s a huge gain in a polarized environment.”
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Support for productive sectors
Medeiros assesses that the agreement can also be used as an instrument for political articulation with strategic sectors. “This type of agreement favors agribusiness and industry. You can use this to reduce resistance and, eventually, bring sectors to support a candidacy”, he stated.
In his analysis, the agreement with the European Union will not be an isolated movement. “Lula must go to Asia to try to advance agreements with India and South Korea. You are creating a dynamic that politically strengthens the president running for reelection,” he said.
With the campaign approaching, Medeiros believes that the topic will no longer be restricted to specialized circles. “Until August, this will be more about political articulation, but during the election there will be a TV program, there will be a social network, there will be material dedicated to international relations”, he stated. For him, the agreement tends to become one of the pillars of Lula’s electoral narrative in 2026.
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As this Friday’s approval paved the way for the signing of the treaty next week, the campaign can also explore Lula’s image as a diplomatic protagonist, reinforcing the international leadership component.
Even so, the agreement only comes into force after the ratification stages, and part of the dispute must migrate to internal debate in parliaments and sectoral resistance in Europe.
