The Russian Oreshnik ballistic missile that struck the Ukrainian city of Lviv did not carry explosives and did not hit any military targets, indicating that its aim was to coerce rather than cause major damage.
The missile hit residential areas in Lviv on Thursday night, according to Ukrainian officials. There were no casualties, although critical infrastructure was damaged, Mayor Andriy Sadovyi said in a video.
When Russia launched another Oreshnik against Ukraine in 2024, it notified the US — which has satellites capable of detecting missile launches anywhere in the world — to prevent the attack from being interpreted as a nuclear attack. It is unclear whether this protocol was followed last Thursday.
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The fact that the missile has blank warheads, was launched from the Kapustin Yar test range in Russia, and did not hit a military target suggests it is being used as a terror or pressure weapon, said Mick Ryan, a retired Australian Army general and senior researcher at the Lowy Institute.
“It is a tool of strategic coercion, aimed at the Trump administration, European governments and Ukraine,” Ryan said. “Putin has suffered some defeats recently — he needs to show the Russians and other authoritarian nations that Russia is still a power.”
Russia is angered by US and Ukrainian advances in security guarantees and has a short window to act given its growing economic crisis, said a European diplomat who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue. German government spokesman Steffen Meyer called the attack a new escalation of Russian aggression.
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The Russian Defense Ministry said the attack was a response to an alleged Ukrainian attempt to target President Vladimir Putin’s residence. US security officials doubt the Russian claims, and a CIA assessment found no evidence of such an attempt. Ukraine denied any attack on the residence.
The Oreshnik is unique in that it can carry multiple independent, non-nuclear reentry vehicles — heat shield-protected warheads that are released into space. They are not accurate, as they were designed for nuclear warheads, which do not need to directly hit the target. These vehicles are common in intercontinental missiles and other nuclear weapons.
Local authorities in Lviv measured radiation levels after the attack and found nothing unusual.
MIRVs are difficult to intercept after being released from the missile body, so weapons like the Oreshnik must be destroyed while in space. Ukraine does not have the means or radars for this.
Aegis Ashore batteries in Poland and Romania, equipped with SM-3 Block IIA interceptors, could intercept the Oreshnik, as could Germany’s Arrow 3 systems. But parts of the missile could land on Russia, or worse: Such launches would look like ballistic missile strikes against Russia, said William Alberque, a senior fellow at the Pacific Forum.
“Basically, you are firing a ballistic missile into Russian territory,” Alberque said. “Attacking missiles from Poland means a sensitive target, with a 100% chance of something landing on Russia one way or another.”
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The Oreshnik was developed from the RS-26 ballistic missile, which was tested but did not enter the Russian arsenal. It is not known how many Oreshnik systems Russia has, but it has only been used once before, against the city of Dnipro in November 2024.
In both cases, nothing of military value was hit, and the relative inaccuracy of MIRVs makes it difficult to hit targets smaller than a city block.
“It’s a weapon of terror,” concluded Alberque.
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