With , expectations are growing about which sectors of the Brazilian economy should benefit from the gradual opening of the European market. Experts point to agribusiness as the main winner in the short term, but also highlight relevant opportunities for industry, energy and chains less exposed to trade with Europe.
The treaty, negotiated for 26 years and which provides for the elimination of tariffs on around 91% of trade between the blocs, in addition to regulatory harmonization and the reduction of non-tariff barriers, with effects spread over several years.
Agro takes the lead
The consensus among analysts is that Brazilian agribusiness should capture the first and most visible gains from the agreement. Products like beef and chicken, sugar, coffee, fruits, ethanol, orange juice, vegetable oils and fats appear as the best positioned to expand presence in the European market.
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According to Marcelo Vitali, director of the internationalization agency How2Go, some effects tend to be almost immediate. “The European Union is already the largest destination for Brazilian fruit, such as mangoes and grapes, but there is still a tariff. With the agreement, Brazilian fruit will now compete under conditions similar to those of other countries”, he stated.
Studies conducted by How2Go also point to a positive impact on grains, sugar, coffee and processed foods, sectors in which Brazil already has high international competitiveness.
Proteins remain on the radar, despite quotas
Even classified as sensitive products, animal proteins remain among the bets. Liberalization does not take tariffs to zero and involves quotas, but even so, there is an expectation of gains in the medium term.
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“Animal proteins are not fully liberalized, but they tend to be big winners over time,” said Vitali, citing meat exporting companies as potential beneficiaries.
The assessment is shared by Gesner Oliveira, partner at GO Associados and professor at FGV. It includes pork, poultry, fish, processed foods, oils and fats among sectors with a direct positive impact on the Brazilian economy.
Industry and less obvious chains
In addition to agriculture, the agreement opens up space for industrial gains. Vitali highlights the chemical sector Brazilian, today integrated into global chains. “The harmonization of rules and the reduction of regulatory requirements can stimulate trade as much as tariff reductions,” he stated.
Gesner Oliveira also points out opportunities for footwear, leather goods, transport equipment and non-ferrous metalssegments that can expand exports to Europe.
In the same vein, ApexBrasil highlights that the agreement provides for an immediate reduction in tariffs for machinery and transport equipment, such as electric power engines and generators, piston engines used in auto parts and aircraft. It also cites opportunities for leather and skins, stonework, knives and blades.
“More than a third of what Brazil exports to the region is made up of products from the processing industry. We have excellent quality trade with the European Union”, highlighted Jorge Viana, president of ApexBrasil.
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Energy
Another axis highlighted as strategic is energy. For Gesner Oliveira, there is strong complementarity between Brazil and Europe. “Brazil can be a good energy supplier, helping the European Union to diversify sources in a more unstable geopolitical context,” he stated.
Mercosur–EU Agreement: sectors and products with the greatest potential from Brazil to the EU:
| Sector | Products | Observations |
|---|---|---|
| Agribusiness | Beef, poultry, sugar, ethanol, coffee, fresh fruit, orange juice, vegetable oils | Sensitive products in some cases, with quotas and safeguards; strong Brazilian competitiveness |
| Forest products | Pulp and paper | EU is already a big market; agreement increases competitiveness |
| Industry | Chemicals, footwear, leather articles, non-ferrous metals | Benefit from regulatory harmonization and tariff reduction |
| Energy | Energy and derivatives | Strategic complementarity highlighted by experts |
The other side: European products that should gain space in Brazil
Experts also emphasize that the agreement increases competition in the Brazilian market, especially in segments such as machinery, equipment, electronics, clothing, cosmetics and industrial products Europeans today are highly taxed.
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“Commercial opening does not create automatic winners. It rewards strategy and long-term vision”, warns Fabio Ongaro, vice president of finance at Italcam. For him, the final impact of the agreement will depend less on the text and more on the economic choices made following its implementation.
A study conducted by How2Go with Spanish companies highlights opportunities mainly in products without a local substitute or with clear differentiation.
Among the items with the greatest potential are olive oils with designation of origin, sausages and cured meats, hams, cured sheep cheeses or mixtures, as well as preserved fish and seafood. The survey also identifies space for different drinks, such as spirits, vegetable drinks, non-alcoholic products and fruit or tomato preparations with sensorial or functional appeal.
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On the other hand, the study highlights high competition and lower attractiveness in categories in which Brazil is self-sufficient, such as fresh meats, industrial dairy products, basic bakery products, biscuits, sauces and industrial juices.
Mercosur–EU Agreement: sectors and products with the greatest EU potential for Brazil
| Sector | Products | Observations |
|---|---|---|
| Premium food | PDO olive oils, cured cheeses, sausages, hams, canned fish | High-value-added niches, without local substitutes |
| Drinks | DO wines, spirits, vegetable and non-alcoholic drinks | Gradual liberalization; focus on premium consumption |
| Processed foods | Tomato and fruit preparations | Differentiated products with sensorial or functional value |
| Industry | Machinery, electrical equipment, auto parts, aircraft, cosmetics | Immediate or progressive reduction of tariffs |
| Chemistry and pharmaceutical | Chemical inputs | Integration into Brazilian industrial chains |
Gradual gains and structural effect
The expectation is that the effects of the agreement will be gradual. For, the first measurable impacts should appear between two and four years after entry into force, with more structural gains over a seven to ten year horizon.
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“In Brazil, the biggest initial gains are concentrated in agribusiness, but the most transformative effect is in the reduction in the cost of European machinery, technology and capital goods, which can increase the industry’s productivity,” said Ongaro.
According to him, the agreement tends to generate permanent gains in efficiency, with positive impacts on investments, exports and growth in the long term, while increasing competition in the Brazilian domestic market.
