The white smoke of Brussels contrasted this noon with the gray smoke of the tractors on the warpath in half of Europe. And it is a matter of hours before the signature is official. This Friday, the Twenty-seven have overcome the great internal gap by the billionaire agricultural pact with South America and the qualified majority opens a horizon of many millions and many complexities for the rural sector.
Italy, with its last-minute ‘yes’ after the recent modifications to the text, has finished tipping a balance that already seemed quite uneven in favor of the majority agreement. The insufficient objections of France and Hungary, with the abstention of Belgium, have not been enough to stop an agreement that Germany blesses… and the Government of Spain, too, although farmers and ranchers do not have the same opinion.
Since things in the countryside are complex, we go there with a practical guide in the form of a quick reminder so as not to get lost in ‘Mercosur’:
What does the EU-Mercosur agreement consist of?
The agrarian pact is commonly referred to as one of the parties, Mercosur, a metonymy to abbreviate a commercial alliance that goes far beyond trade.
Between the European Union and the four countries that make up Mercosur (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) will be established, once it is official, a huge commercial area that will reach more than 700 million people without tariffs. These are, roughly, some 2.7 billion euros of GDP within that entire immense ‘zone’.
The figures dance with each analysis, but in the official presentation of the pre-agreement with the American side, the Von der Leyen Commission boasted of a alliance with positive effects for up to 60,000 European companies with businesses in the area, which thanks to the agreement would save 4 billion dollars per year (about 3,500 in euros).
The initial text without much success until then. Voices against it immediately arose, in the gardens, in the streets and in parliaments, with France, Italy and Poland as major centers of the ‘no’. But over the months and negotiations, positions have come closer to guaranteeing massive support this Friday.
What are ‘safeguard clauses’?
This element has been key for Italy to end up moving to the ‘yes’ side after a long year of reluctance and criticism. In mid-December 2025, the European Parliament gave its approval to the so-called safeguard clauses to protect the community primary sector given the foreseeable flood of products and other elements coming from the American countries, the feared “sudden flows.”
Strasbourg overwhelmingly endorsed a modification of the initial agreement with Mercosur, allowing the margins for increased imports and falling prices for sensitive products to be reduced by half, going from a 10% to a 5% variation so that the EU can investigate and take measures.
Basically, we explained then, it is that the European Commission will not be so lax regarding trade with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguayacting earlier to limit the tariff advantages of an agreement designed as free trade. This, however, seemed impossible on the part of the European sector, which saw itself in clear weakness in the face of the infinitely lower production costs of the American countryside.
These key products most monitored are dairy, beef, chicken, rice, sugar or ethanol. Regarding them, the EU will monitor that imports from American lands do not skyrocket based on the figures from the last three years. Likewise, Brussels promises its ranchers and farmers act if the price of American basic goods is at least 5% lower of those that present these European products.
In short, if the Commission concludes that harm is being caused to European producers, temporarily suspend trading benefits to imports.
Why the Spanish camp and others oppose it
There are many differences that farm workers in the Twenty-seven usually present, and even the discrepancies between the main Spanish agricultural associations among themselves are known. In ‘Mercosur’, however, there is much more harmony.
“Can I allow genetically modified soy in the EU? No. Well, this agreement does allow its exportation without tariffs. Can I produce hormone-containing meat in the EU? No. Well, this agreement does allow exportation without tariffs,” . And he added, in case it was necessary, that “we are not against trade agreements, but we are against give more facilities to products from outside than to those from the EU“.
This is the main factor in rejecting an agreement classified as “unfair.” From UPA they add that “We put food security in the EU at risk and we are left in a situation of inequality in costs and prices“, in reference to the difference in demands regarding safety and production processes.
And why does the Spanish Government defend it?
From the beginning of the last phase of negotiation, the Government of Spain showed its ‘blessing’ to Mercosur. Both the Minister of Agriculture and the Minister of Foreign Affairs have dedicated months to explaining the reasons for their support for an alliance that would represent a “strategic benefit” for “an agri-food power like Spain”, to which King Felipe joined this Friday, January 9.
At your side, José Manuel Albares added his “happiness” for the “extraordinary news” of the community ‘yes’, for which he had been “promoting and working for a long time”. It did so, the Foreign Minister stressed, to guarantee the diversification of trade allies by the EU at a difficult time with the US.
More forceful, Pedro Sánchez launched a defining “FINALLY” in a reaction by X after the official signing of the Twenty-seven. The President of the Spanish Government assures that from now on national companies “will be able to enter new markets, export more, and generate more jobs.”
“In today’s world it’s not all tariffs, threats and bad news. Some of us are building new bridges and alliances to forge shared prosperity,” celebrates Pedro Sánchez, convinced that the pact will allow “to maintain a strong bond with that sister and strategic region that is Latin America.”
Those harmed (and some who benefited)
There are numerous producing sectors that have cried out over the dangers that the multilateral agreement entails. From COAG they transmit to El HuffPost are fear for what may happen to beef and pig farmingagainst livestock rivals as producers as Argentina and Brazil and with costs much lower than those borne in the EU.
There is more. Miguel Padilla, general secretary of COAG, stops at rice, sugar or citrus fruitsthree of the sectors that could be especially affected, which is why Brussels promises to pay special attention to the evolution of its markets.
However, the focus is not only on products, but also on farm models, especially ‘family farming’. If they could already feel the damage of the cut in the CAP, the confrontation of unequal conditions with Mercosur producers could leave them without “possibility of competing.”
The opposite is true for large farms, which the Spanish countryside believes could benefit from this “large-scale” agreement. Along with the largest extensions, there are sectors that look favorably a priori business with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay.
They are mainly, wine, dairy, oil and processed productswho “see a huge new market for their exports” without suffering a massive import of identical elements from the other side of the pond.
There is an agreement, but there is still a way to go: what steps are left?
The first step has been carried out quickly and this time without surprises, because no one forgets that at the end of 2025 the EU had to postpone a signing that was considered almost done for a month. After the initial ‘ok’ in the morning, this Friday afternoon, the EU member countries have formalized the agreement with a written procedurea necessary protocol step to make the union official.
With this document already sealed, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, accompanied by the president of the European Council, António Costa, will travel to the American continent for the final signature between the two parties. It is expected to take place over the weekend.
The signing with the four South American countries does not conclude the path either. The text will have to return to the European Union so that passes the vote of the European Parliamentwhere the left and especially the ultra formations have already shown their refusal. They are not the majority, but the parliamentary fight seems tense.
And more, because from within the European Parliament there are voices that cry out for judicial means, bring the future EU-Mercosur agreement to the CJEUthus suspending its entry into force… and incidentally extend deadlines towards a horizon that is today difficult to specify.
