Why did Putin remain silent about Maduro’s ouster in Venezuela?

Russia sent bombers to Venezuela to support Maduro not long ago, but now the Kremlin has stood by as the US arrests the contested leader. What does the US surprise attack mean for the war in Ukraine?

Nicolas Maduro praised Vladimir Putin during his visit to Moscow on Victory Day in May 2025. The Venezuelan leader described Russia as “a fundamental power of humanity“, and the two heads of state signed a cooperation agreement.

But on January 3, Russia stood aside as the US forcibly took Maduro and his wife to New York, where they are on trial for drug trafficking.

Russian air defenses failed to protect Maduro

Three days after the fall of the Venezuelan president, Putin remained silent. The Russian Foreign Ministry expressed its concern and called for Maduro’s release and negotiations between the US and Venezuela. According to official reports, after a phone call in early December, Maduro received a New Year’s message from the Russian president.

Maduro was one of the few heads of state who supported Russia in February 2022, when Moscow recognized the separatist pseudo-republics of Donetsk and Luhansk before launching its major attack on Ukraine.

In December 2018, Russia sent two strategic bombers Tu-160 to Venezuela for exercises, which experts interpreted as a sign of support for Maduro. They landed at Caracas airport — the same airport used by the US to deport the Venezuelan leader in handcuffs.

But Russian air defenses were unable to protect the contested leader during last week’s operation, as US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stressed.

Why is Putin staying silent about Trump?

“Russia’s support for Venezuela has been more symbolic than practical“, these Neil Melvinan expert at the Royal United Services Institute, told DW. In his opinion, Russia is not in a position to contest the deployment of American forces in the neighboring region.

Felix Riefera German political scientist and author of a book on Russian foreign policy, also said he was not surprised by Putin’s response. After Trump’s return to the White House, which led to rapprochement between Moscow and Washington, Russia responded to “American insinuations regarding Venezuela with relative moderation”, he said. “Russia had already abandoned Maduro“.

Both experts said a key explanation for Putin’s silence is Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine and the U.S.’s changing role from Kiev’s partner to mediator in negotiations. Russia is eager to avoid harsh criticism of Washington because he doesn’t want to cause offense, according to Melvin. In his opinion, Moscow’s rhetoric regarding the events in Venezuela would be “significantly harsher” if it were not for the war against Ukraine.

The British expert saw no immediate consequences for the war in Ukraine. This could change if Trump does not limit himself to Venezuela, but goes further and, for example, try to annex Greenlandwhich belongs to Denmark — something the American president recently hinted at.

Melvin believes that NATO would likely not survive such a development. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen expressed one on Monday.

Cautious optimism in Ukraine

Kiev, in turn, is closely following events in Venezuela. “If dictators can be treated this way, then the United States knows what to do next,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said earlier this week. The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterated that it does not recognize Maduro as president.

Experts in Kiev are cautiously optimistic. Markets expect relations between the US and Venezuela to normalize in the near future, which will open Venezuela to oil production and will have a significant impact on the global economy and in oil prices, said political scientist Petro Oleshchuk of Kiev’s Taras Shevchenko National University.

“Anything that reduces oil prices is beneficial for Ukraine and can have a positive impact on negotiations. The cheaper oil is, the less money Russia has at its disposalmaking the idea that Russia is prepared for endless war increasingly less credible,” Oleshchuk said.

Some media outlets have suggested that the US could weaken its role as a democratic partner in negotiations by arresting Maduro. However, experts interviewed by DW are skeptical. According to Oleshchuk, the US military intervention is in line with the fact that the Western Hemisphere is a sphere of influence. He stressed that it is impossible to draw parallels between Maduro’s arrest and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

“In the case of Venezuela, the US is not annexing territory and is not claiming that Venezuela is a fictitious state,” he said.

Experts question the stability of Russia’s position

Political scientist Riefer said that Russia could try to use the Venezuela case to justify its aggression against Ukraine. While this is a possible outcome, “a direct comparison is flawed,” he said.

Riefer is convinced that Moscow’s reputation in the world has been weakened, stating that “those who depend on Russia cannot expect to be protected”.

Melvin, in turn, highlighted that this is not the first time that Putin has abandoned an ally. “THE Russia lost Armenia, Syria and now Venezuela“, he said. “Russia’s international position is visibly weakening as it intensifies its war against Ukraine and does not have the resources to maintain such relations.”

In the case of Cuba, Russia’s most important partner in Latin America and one of Venezuela’s closest allies, Moscow’s protests may be more vehement, Melvin added, but Russia’s options are ultimately “very limited.” Cuba is among the countries that have recently been verbally attacked by Trump.