The indication by the former president (PL) that his representative in the 2026 election would be his son (PL-RJ) shuffled the possibilities of alliances that were emerging between the right-wing governors tipped for the Palácio do Planalto – (Republicanos-SP), (Novo-MG), . (-PR) and (-GO).
So far, the senator’s candidacy points to one instead of unifying the opposition to (PT) in the first round. Although Tarcísio indicates that Ratinho’s name has once again gained strength as an alternative to the senator, while Zema and Caiado state that they will also compete for the Presidency of the Republic.
According to Tarcísio’s interlocutors, the governor had signaled that Zema and Ratinho were his favorites, in this order, to be his vice-president, if he ran for Planalto — he has repeated that he will run for re-election in São Paulo. Now, the governor of Minas, the second largest electoral college in the country, is seen as a vice who could add to Ratinho or Flávio’s campaigns.
Before Flávio launched himself into Planalto, at the beginning of December, right-wing governors frequently shared the same opinions on topics such as public security and . The invasion of Venezuela by the United States was another episode in which the .
The alignment led to speculation about possible electoral alliances, which were based on the premise that Tarcísio would be the main and priority candidate, due to his connection with Bolsonaro and for governing the most important state.
Zema, for example, has said in the past that he could give up running in the name of the greater objective of defeating the PT. Novo, when he admitted that he could join other parties if Bolsonaro asked.
More recently, in October, the Minas Gerais native said he ruled out the possibility of being vice-president regardless of the former president’s approval.
If Tarcísio and Zema were in sync, a party formed by Flávio and the Minas Gerais candidate is a hypothesis considered more difficult, given the lack of coexistence between the senator and the governor and the opposition on the part of Novo to ally with Bolsonarism in the first round.
At the same time that Tarcísio’s candidacy withered, Flávio’s decision. The name of the governor of Paraná is mentioned as an option by right-wing and center-right parties that resist supporting Bolsonaro’s son.
Secretary of Tarcísio and president of the PSD, he has already declared that he would not launch a presidential candidacy for his party if the governor of São Paulo were a candidate – but the commitment does not remain with Flávio’s candidacy.
In December, from the party with the Bolsonaro senator. “The PSD’s decision is to support Tarcísio if he is a candidate. And, if he is not a candidate, we have two pre-candidates within the party”, he said in reference to Ratinho and Eduardo Leite, from Rio Grande do Sul.
In a scenario with Flávio as a candidate, the possibility of an electoral union between the governors would basically come down to a Ratinho-Zema ticket, which is being considered by allies even though the governor of Minas says he is determined to keep his name in the election.
Caiado, in turn, is seen as someone running on the sidelines, as he would hardly withdraw his candidacy in favor of another name, but would probably support any opposition candidacy in the second round.
When Flávio entered the pre-campaign, the governor of Goiás stated that it was Bolsonaro’s right to try to make his son’s candidacy viable, but reinforced his decision to run. In December, Caiado received the senator to discuss the election, especially the state dispute.
Caiado, however, has party issues to resolve. The União Brasil federation did not decide to endorse the governor and initially preferred Tarcísio’s name. Last week, however, the president of the PP, senator (PI), was running for governor of São Paulo and was betting on Flávio.
