US attacked Venezuela – and Putin should be “very, very worried” now

It could seem like a first moment of great dominance by the USA, China and Russia – but Putin wants war, not money.

The Russian President, Vladimir Putin, You may have reasons to disturb with the way Donald Trump deals with authoritarian regimes.

This is an analysis that arises in , due to the case of Venezuela and the indirect impact on Moscow.

Washington’s withdrawal of Nicolás Maduro — even if framed as a strategic repositioning — functions as warning to the Kremlin: autocrats may become expendable when they start to disrupt agreements economic and geopolitical.

A transactional approach to foreign policy, with an emphasis on great-power understandings, could, at first glance, benefit Putin — by suggesting international tolerance for a Russian sphere of influence in the post-Soviet space.

However this attack was a bad news to the Russian leader himself – who should be “very, very worried.”

First reason: price of oil. The decline puts pressure on the Russian state budget and limits the financial scope for the war in Ukraine. Donald Trump, president of the USA, will have internal incentives to favor a surplus of supply and lower prices, seeking to reduce inflation in the USA, even if this would displease producer allies.

Trump wants money, Putin wants war

But the main risk is not economic: Trump will be little interested in promoting democracy and would be willing to coexist with authoritarian elites – as long as they accept a relationship of “rent sharing” and openness to business.

This is where the White House leader clashes with the Kremlin leader: Trump wants money, Putin wants war.

The Russian President is already extremely rich; Today, it will be less focused on commercial gains and more consumed by a logic of war, with discourse centered on military advances, threats to NATO countries and new weapons systems. In fact, one can notice his enthusiasm when talking about the war.

E and elites Russians — defined as kleptocratic and non-ideological — prioritize money and stability, and would like an end to hostilities, even if they publicly support the war effort.

O ditch between Vladimir Putin and these elites will be increasingly visible.

A corruption It will be a pillar of the Russian system: from small extortion to large-scale enrichment, with loyalty mechanisms based on complicity and distribution of benefits. A lot of money will have been diverted and transferred abroad, in the form of assets and investments in destinations such as London, Miami or the French Riviera.

Part of the initial failures of the Russian campaign in Ukraine will be related to this: funds aimed at influencing Ukrainian authorities and setting up internal networks would have been appropriated; and significant military investments would have resulted, in part, in front projects and enrichment of senior officials.

Another problem: Donald Trump is becoming less and less patient with Vladimir Putindue to the prolongation of the war in Ukraine, and wants 500% tariffs on Russia, indicates .

With Western sanctions making access to goods and lifestyles abroad difficult, many Russian oligarchs will be trying to “normalize” fortunes and return to international respectability. In other words, Trump is an opportunity — but Putin, by refusing an agreement and insisting on war, is the obstacle.