Analysts estimate a 30% expansion with the relief of sanctions and the reactivation of the oil sector, but warn of exchange rate volatility and the risk of hyperinflation in the short term
“I hope salaries improve. We can no longer handle this inflation”, says teacher Marieta Ochoa, 47 years old. Like many in the , she hopes that agreements with them will “help improve the economy” and translate into better living conditions.
The American military operation that overthrew radically changed the scenario in the country and expectations for the economy.
Until Friday (2), there was a scenario of maximum confrontation between the two countries: more severe sanctions on the oil industry, seizure of tankers and a strong deterrent effect on other vessels.
Venezuela sold oil at discounts of up to 50%, with a low level of production and exports. The country has deepened the use of cryptocurrencies to increase the flow of currency in the face of the absence of foreign investment, while inflation soars and wipes out absurdly low wages.
“The rapprochement between Washington and Caracas could translate into an easing of sanctions, the restoration of oil exports and foreign exchange flows,” said Alejandro Grisanti, director of the consultancy Ecoanalítico.
The state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela negotiates the sale of oil volumes with Washington, through schemes similar to those signed with multinationals such as Chevron. The president signed an order to shield oil revenues and said he will manage them to supply goods and repair Venezuela’s electrical infrastructure.
“The year 2026 began with an unprecedented shift in Venezuelan politics and will have consequences for economic dynamics,” noted economist Asdrúbal Oliveros. “Politics and economics have never been as intertwined as they are at this moment,” he said.
A protester holds a photo of Nicolás Maduro during a protest in support of him and his wife, Cilia Flores, in Caracas
‘Stable’ cash flow
Analysts maintain that, if the interim president shows signs of openness and flexibility, she will be able to build the internal consensus necessary to attract investments.
“The country urgently needs a growing and stable cash flow, and it is oil that can provide it immediately,” said economist Carlos Torrealba Rangel.
Growth prospects are positive, as the oil sector accounts for 87% of foreign exchange.
“I estimate an expansion of 30%, that is, double what was recorded in the last two years”, said Oliveros. “There will be an increase in oil revenue with greater production, discounts will fall significantly and this will result in a greater flow of revenue, which will help the foreign exchange market, which is currently practically dry of foreign exchange.”
Economic activity is still operating at half steam after the US bombings on January 3 to capture Nicolás Maduro and his wife, .
“Little by little, the economy is being reactivated. People are buying again, payments in dollars are normalizing, because there were many people speculating on the dollar above the rate. Priority is being given to the sale of food,” said Carmen Álvarez, representative of informal commerce in western Caracas.
Uncertainty and lack of confidence in exchange rate policy caused the prices of goods to rise during the week, after the dollar in the parallel market soared by more than 50%, reaching around 800 bolivars.
Oliveros explained that the government was also short of coins and that “there were practically no revenues in dollars and even those coming in cryptocurrencies had been paralyzed”.
Over the weekend, the unofficial dollar began to retreat to 530 bolivars, possibly driven by expectations generated by the oil agreement, according to analysts.
‘Transition’
Experts warn, however, of the fragility of the Venezuelan economy. “Venezuela is on the verge of a hyperinflation process. The only solution to ward off this danger is a constitutional and peaceful political transition that allows the economy to be reorganized,” said economist José Guerra.
They explain that the short term will be marked precisely by uncertainty, which requires monitoring key economic variables, such as exchange rates and inflation.
José Manuel Puente, professor at the University of Oxford, agrees that flexibility will improve expectations and attract investment from the United States and the rest of the world. He emphasizes, however, that it will not be easy, as the oil industry needs 100 billion dollars per year (R$537 billion) to reactivate and that everything will depend on how the negotiations progress. “Ultimately, we are talking about all of this occurring in a scenario of a country under the supervision of the United States,” he stated.
*With information from AFP
Published by Nícolas Robert
