Allies of () project an uncertain political future for the mayor of the capital of São Paulo if the governor (Republicans), in fact, runs for re-election in the state. Everything will depend, according to them, on the successor chosen by the mayor to run for municipal management in 2030.
Nunes was seen as a possible name to run for government in 2026 if Tarcísio ran for President, as was being discussed by businesspeople and leaders of center and right-wing parties.
The scenario changed after the senator (PL-RJ) announced his pre-candidacy for Palácio do Planalto in early December. This made some of Tarcísio’s main defenders in the Presidency retreat from any support for the governor – who he publicly denies.
Because he was re-elected in 2024, Nunes will not be able to run again for Mayor of São Paulo in 2028, when his term ends, and will remain without an elected position until the 2030 general election. The mayor has already declared, more than once, that he does not wish to leave his term before the end, but that he would not refuse a request from Tarcísio, his main electoral campaigner in the last election.
The mayor’s political future, according to assistants interviewed by the Panel, depends on the name that Nunes chooses to succeed him in the position. Today, they say, there is no one he trusts for the post.
Nunes’ deputy, colonel (PL), is not seen as an option for a political heir. Araújo himself, chosen by former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) for the ticket, admitted to Sheet by many members of management.
Among the internal complaints against the vice president, there are complaints from and public criticism of Nunes and Tarcísio.
Furthermore, as there are almost three years left until the end of his term, those around the mayor believe it is too early to design a name. One of them told the Panel, with reservations, that supporting someone now would be “killing a candidacy”.
Although she is not seen as a political successor, the first lady is seen by the mayor’s allies as an asset, as she is considered a possible candidate for state deputy for the MDB, with the animal cause as a campaign theme, and could attract even more recognition to the emedebista.
In the mayor’s favor, according to another assistant, the fact that São Paulo is a city that attracts the attention of the entire country weighs heavily, making Nunes an easier name to remember than other mayors in the same situation as him.
This could help him, in their view, to be called to hold the position of secretary in some administration. There is also a bet that Tarcísio would not fail to extend a hand to his ally, who will be on his platform in 2026, whether to the state or federal government.
“Unfortunately he won’t leave [ao governo estadual]. My particular desire is for Nunes to leave the government of São Paulo”, said the former councilor, president of União Brasil in the city of São Paulo. “After completing his term, he will have a good base in 2030, as he is still young and has national projection”.
Despite having praised Nunes’ base, Milton Leite did not tell the column which position the mayor could run for in 2030.
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