The mayor of , (), maintained throughout 2025 the public discourse that , in 2028. During the same period, he went and committed a flawed act that revealed what, little by little, he increasingly recognizes more and more frankly behind the scenes.
Paes intends to leave office in March to run for Government of Rio de Janeiro. The political articulations are extended in a , with expectations of the unfolding of the and the probable indirect election with the imminent resignation of the governor (PL) to run for the Senate.
Over the past year, the mayor sought to prepare the transition to vice mayor, (PSD). In order to assure allies that there will be no ruptures with the change, the future mayor participated in a large part of the conversations aimed at this year’s elections and which could be reflected in the new composition of the city hall.
Paes did not hide signs of his future candidacy. The mayor invested in publicizing the issue, which should be the main theme of this year’s campaign. He also announced the construction of bus corridor terminals to serve Baixada Fluminense, highlighting the benefit to residents of the metropolitan region, the electorate he seeks to get closer to.
He also started to wear a cowboy hat on trips to the interior, replacing the panama hat that he continues to wear during appearances in Rio de Janeiro. On New Year’s Eve, in addition to images of Rio’s beaches that traditionally appear on social media, it released videos of the coastline of cities in the Lakes Region.
The mayor has been holding talks with the MDB and the PP to attract acronyms that are now part of Castro’s alliance. The objective is to expand its capillarity in the interior and, try to reduce the link between its candidacy and President Lula and, mainly, the PT in a state with a Bolsonarist profile. One of the names being considered for Paes’ vice position is Rogério Lisoa (PP), former mayor of Nova Iguaçu. The definition, however, should be mid-year.
Negotiations have progressed, facilitated by the scenario of uncertainty regarding the government’s name for the succession at the Guanabara Palace following investigations into the deputy (União Brasil). The president removed from Alerj (Legislative Assembly) was one of the strongest names after getting closer to former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL). He was removed from office by minister Alexandre de Moraes, of the STF (Supreme Federal Court), on suspicion of leaking information about operations against former state deputy TH Joias, suspected of links with Comando Vermelho.
The investigations added another uncertainty to the political scenario to be assessed by Paes. Bacellar’s weakening reopened the discussion about the name of the future “buffer governor” to take over the state after Castro’s likely resignation, also in March, to run for the Senate.
Paes has been following the discussions, but does not intend to present a name. Castro’s favorite, the secretary of the state Civil House, is seen as a transition, albeit with suspicion. He has a technical profile and is seen as a name without political ambitions to try to remain in office in October.
In the municipality, the mayor has increasingly delegated day-to-day management to the deputy mayor. Cavaliere has participated in the city hall’s main announcements, in a kind of continuous transition until March.
One of these moments was the release of the 2025-2028 Strategic Plan, coordinated by Cavaliere. It was during the publication of the document, at the Barra Olympic Park, that Paes committed his mistake.
“The vice-mayor, Eduardo Cavaliere, will take away from me a brand that was mine, that of the youngest mayor in the history of Rio de Janeiro. I took over at 38, he will take over at 30, 31 years of age”, he stated in August.
Next, Paes sought to remove the connotation of farewell from his speech. He argued that he was referring to the fact that the deputy would take office days later due to an international trip already planned. However, Cavaliere had already been interim mayor on other similar occasions, and there was no originality as described in the flawed act.
The episode occurred months after a joke by the national president of the PSD, Sheetwhen commenting on Paes’ resistance to taking on the pre-candidacy. “But you know he’s a liar, right?”
The mayor’s allies are betting that there will be no wear and tear on the mayor, who in 2024 promised for Portela and Vasco —his team— that he would not resign to run for office. They claim that internal surveys indicate the desire of the mayor’s electorate for him to run for government, which is experiencing a financial and public security crisis.
