After all, the survey that Ventura shared exists (but is not published)

Ventura’s 24.6%. Enough denies the ZAP and sends a document. Aximage confirms a survey that is not online.

This Monday, André Ventura was lying when he shared a poll that clearly placed him ahead in the presidential elections.

The survey was carried out by Aximage and showed that Chega’s president led voting intentions with 24.6% of preferences.

We wrote that this survey is false – but after all it exists.

ZAP misled readers because, after research, we did not find any Aximage survey published, neither in recent weeks, nor with that percentage.

But Chega sent us an email with the Aximage survey, with the document. Which, in fact, shows the numbers put forward by André Ventura.

We spoke to Aximage, who confirmed that the survey is authentic and was indeed carried out.

André Ventura added, in contact with José Manuel Fernandes from the radio (who had also spoken on the subject), that the survey was never published by Folha Nacional, a newspaper linked to Chega – it was Folha Nacional that commissioned the survey from Aximage.

In other words, the survey exists. But it was never published anywhere. It is registered with the ERC – Regulatory Entity for Social Communication but has not been disclosed.

Os 24,6%

With the confirmation of the survey, we analyzed the numbers revealed by Aximage.

With the distribution of undecided voters, André Ventura leads with 24.6%. Far from the competition: Marques Mendes with 18.3%, Gouveia e Melo with 17.3%, Seguro with 16.8% and Cotrim with 14.4%.

André Ventura’s 24.6% – and the distance to everyone else – is a very different result from all other polls; whether more recent or less recent. These are very different numbers, even from all of Aximage’s own surveys.

With just a few days to go before the elections, Ventura appears highlighted as ever.

Does any factor justify this change? In other words: does a survey commissioned by a party, by an official party body (whether from Chega or any other party), cause any bias in the sample? Or in the method of carrying out the survey?

Aximage assures that it was a survey like the others: “The survey you refer to was carried out by Aximage in compliance with all methodological, deontological and legal rules”, reads a clarification sent to ZAP.