Bolsonaro politicians are dissatisfied with the lack of more emphatic support from the governor of São Paulo, to the senator’s pre-campaign for the Presidency.
Tarcísio told journalists that the former president’s son can count on him, but so far he only speaks publicly about the matter when asked, does not declare his support on social media and has not participated in pre-campaign events, such as the one in December in São Paulo.
Among Bolsonaro supporters, there are already those who call him “Tarcísio Garcia”, in reference to the former governor, who remained neutral between Lula (PT) and Bolsonaro in the 2022 re-election campaign and who ended up being left out of the second round.
This wing says that, if Tarcísio does not express firm and open support for Flávio, he could be seen as a traitor and be the target of the group’s artillery.
Tarcísio’s allies say that the anxiety of Flávio’s supporters is expected, but that it is not yet time to campaign and that the governor is focused on state management. One of them says that the moment, for now, is to articulate support with the other parties, and that this responsibility lies with the senator, and not Tarcísio.
There are also Bolsonarists who believe that the criticism is hasty. “We have to respect each person’s time. Not everything happens in the time window that third parties want”, says , former head of the Social Communication Secretariat of the Bolsonaro government. “The governor’s relationship with the president is one of total loyalty, respect and friendship.”
Flávio’s supporters and party leaders believe that, if the former president’s son does not give up running, Tarcísio will eventually join the campaign, even if for political survival. “He will never want to be a [João] Doria, be seen as a traitor”, says the senator, president of the PP.
For Nogueira, who in an interview with Sheet last week Tarcísio was a candidate for President, the governor was frustrated at not having been chosen by Bolsonaro for the mission. The PP leader stated, however, that Tarcísio himself has already told him that he will support Flávio.
A member of the PL speculates that, if Tarcísio does not join the campaign, Bolsonaro could even support another candidate in São Paulo, breaking with the governor and guaranteeing a more aligned platform for his son. Nogueira believes that this will not happen because “it would be bad for both of them”.
The governor was the preferred candidate of the financial market and the center, which was looking for a name for the Presidency that could unite the right-wing electorate. Publicly, over the past year, Tarcísio began to criticize the federal government, but always said he was a candidate for re-election.
Even politicians who believe that the governor’s intention was to remain in São Paulo believe that Tarcísio was at least frustrated with the way in which it was announced in December. The senator who had been chosen by his father after the news was revealed by the Metrópoles portal.
There was no event built in advance together with the PL and allies, as would be expected for the occasion. Before declaring that he would be Bolsonaro’s candidate, Flávio went to São Paulo to tell Tarcísio the news.
The decision to maintain the influence of the Bolsonaro clan and sideline other actors in this decision, including the governor, who was awaiting instructions for 2026, would explain why Tarcísio now resists supporting Flávio’s campaign more openly, says a PL member.
The governor took three days to comment after announcing the pre-candidacy. When he did so, he was questioned by the press, stating that he joined “other big names in the opposition” who had made themselves available. During the interview, Tarcísio tried several times to avoid the subject.
Enthusiasts of Flávio’s campaign say that the governor’s support is important not only to guarantee the platform in the state with the largest electoral college in the country, but also in strategic terms. Considering the intention to sell the senator as a “light” version of his father, Tarcísio could be presented as a successful example of a “moderate Bolsonaro supporter”, according to these interlocutors.
At the turn of the year, the governor went on a vacation trip to the United States. At the same time, Flávio went to the country to visit his brother, the impeached federal deputy. There was no meeting with Tarcísio.
In an interview with Bolsonaro blogger Paulo Figueiredo, released last week, Flávio said that his pre-candidacy has the advantage of not putting the right-wing control over São Paulo at risk. In other words, if Tarcísio ran for President and lost, the group would be left without the federal and São Paulo governments. For the senator, Tarcísio will not lose re-election “at all”.
He also stated that he received a call from the governor at Christmas, a gesture he considered “very nice”. “He said ‘Flávio, merry Christmas, we’re together, count on me’. I was really happy. Tarcísio is on his vacation, recharging his batteries, as am I too,” he said.
Bolsonaro’s eldest son also stated that the relationship between the two is good and that he counts on his ally in the campaign. “I respect Tarcísio a lot, a guy loyal to Bolsonaro. In his time, he will be close, give the platform, and we will walk together. Victory on a national level mainly involves São Paulo.”
