The sequence of votes at the end of the year redesigned the starting point of the relationship between the Lula government and Congress for 2026. After defeats on sensitive issues, such as the Dosimetry PL, Budget control and the retreat around the Public Security PEC, the expectation is for a legislative year marked by tougher negotiations and less room for maneuver for the Executive.
The Dosimetry PL should remain one of the first sources of tension at the beginning of the year. With , attention turns to Planalto’s ability to sustain this veto or negotiate adjustments. The reading in Brasília is that the matter will continue to be used as an instrument of political pressure in the first weeks after the recess.
In the fiscal field, the episode involving the increase in the IOF raised a warning for 2026. The overturning of the decree showed that the government will have difficulty moving forward with revenue measures without extensive prior negotiation. The expectation is that proposals with a tax impact will face similar resistance, especially in a pre-election year.
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The Budget also tends to occupy a central role at the beginning of the year. Before the recess, Congress leaders should enter 2026 with greater leadership in defining priorities and releasing resources. The expectation is that the topic will continue to be used as a bargaining chip in negotiations with the Executive.
The Public Security PEC appears as an example of an agenda that must remain locked. After losing traction in 2025, the proposal remains without a clear forecast for a vote, and the assessment is that . The government must concentrate efforts on infraconstitutional projects or administrative actions in the area, given the lack of political environment for constitutional changes.
With this scenario, the beginning of 2026 tends to be marked by an agenda more controlled by Congress and greater dependence on the government in relation to the leadership of the center. Presidential vetoes, tax projects and institutional issues must be dealt with on a case-by-case basis, with longer negotiations and higher political costs.
The expectation in Brasília is that the year will begin with disputes focused less on new proposals and more on managing impasses inherited from the end of 2025, in an environment in which Congress is stronger and the Planalto is under pressure to rebuild its base.
