Analysts have questioned whether China will be able to maintain its current levels of exports to the rest of the world next year — particularly as more countries look for ways to protect their domestic markets from what is often described as Chinese “industrial overcapacity.”
In 2025, China recorded the largest trade surplus ever recorded in the world, ending a year in which the largest global manufacturer defied trade pressure from the United States by increasing exports to other international markets.
The huge trade surplus — a measure of the difference between what a country exports and what it imports — reached a record 1.2 trillion dollars (about 1.1 trillion euros), an increase of 20% compared to 2024, as Chinese companies deepened their shift away from North American consumers and turned to emerging markets in Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America.
Chinese exports to the United States, historically China’s largest single market, fell 19.5% in 2025 compared with the previous year.
But while Beijing’s resilience in the face of US President Donald Trump’s trade war will be presented as a victory within China, globally the surplus risks further worsening trade tensions between countries that fear being swamped by low-cost Chinese imports.
Chinese officials have highlighted the strong performance of foreign trade, as a sign of the country’s robustness, even with the sharp drop in exports to the USA, in a context of trade confrontation of mutual retaliation between the two largest economies in the world over the last year.
China has “advanced determinedly” despite facing a “complex and challenging external environment”, said Wang Jun, deputy director of the customs administration, at a press conference held this Wednesday.
Exports of high-tech goods — a category that includes high-end machinery and industrial robots — rose 13% year-on-year, while exports of electric vehicles, lithium batteries and photovoltaic products such as solar panels grew 27%.
Less USA, more rest of the world
Instead of seeing exports sink as the US and China raised tariffs on each other’s products, Beijing was able to deepen its products’ presence in other global markets, building on the international economic footprint and strategies that Chinese companies developed during Trump’s first trade war.
Exports to regions outside the United States recorded significant increases: the value of goods sent to Africa rose by 26.5%, to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations by 14%, to the European Union by 9% and to Latin America by 8%, year-on-year.
This movement generated friction with major trading partners around the world, who expressed concerns about what they consider unfair commercial practices and the massive entry of Chinese products harming strategic national industries, affecting jobs and putting economic security at risk.
During a recent visit to Beijing, French President Emmanuel Macron described his country’s growing trade imbalance with China as unsustainable, echoing positions of European policymakers who have called on Beijing to increase domestic consumption and slow the pace of exports.
Still, strong exports over the past year gave Beijing the confidence it needed to take on Washington during months of trade negotiations, which culminated in October when Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping met and agreed a truce that reduced new tariffs on Chinese goods to 20%. Tariffs had briefly reached 145% at the beginning of the year.
That truce remains in effect, although Trump said on Monday that countries doing business with Iran will face it — an announcement that could subject China, one of the Tehran regime’s main economic backers, to higher taxes.
Exporters are preparing for more tensions in the bilateral relationship, at a time when Trump has made reducing dependence on China and returning industrial production to the United States one of the banners of his administration.
Analysts have questioned whether China will be able to maintain its current levels of exports to the rest of the world next year — particularly as more countries look for ways to protect their domestic markets from what is often described as Chinese “industrial overcapacity.”
China’s dependence on exports as a driver of growth is also linked to internal difficulties, with the economy pressured by a prolonged crisis in the real estate sector.
Chinese authorities have had difficulty stimulating domestic consumption and achieving the desired model, in which the country’s vast industrial sector is supported by strong demand both internally and externally.
*Yixing Wang contributed to this article
