New Genial/Quaest research released this Wednesday (14) consolidates the senator () in second place in the 2026 first round presidential race, with () in the lead.
With 23% of intentions, the son of the former president (PL) is ahead of the governor of , (), who has 9% in the scenario with all the candidates. Lula has 36%.
In a configuration with only Tarcísio as a representative of the group of right-wing governors, he has 14%, behind the senator, with again 23%, and the current president, who is at 40%.
In a possible second round against Flávio, the PT member registered 45% compared to 38%. If the direct confrontation were with Tarcísio, Lula would win with 44% against 39% for Rio, according to the survey.
The survey was carried out from January 8th to 11th. There were 2,004 face-to-face interviews with Brazilians aged 16 or over. The estimated margin of error is 2 percentage points. The confidence level is 95%.
The research tested seven first-round scenarios, including variations with the governors of Paraná, . (); from Minas Gerais, (); and Goiás, ().
Flávio grew in scenarios aired in December: 5 points in hypothesis with Ratinho as representative of the right-wing governors, 6 points against Zema and 4 points against Caiado.
In all first round scenarios, the current president starts ahead. In relation to December, the PT member maintained the level of voting intentions, with fluctuations within the margin of error.
Lula would also beat all possible opposition candidates in the second round. The one with the smallest difference in voting intentions is Tarcísio, 5 points. Renan Santos has the highest, 20 points.
