The possibility of growth of a wing of the center in October threatens the power of the current president of the House, (-PB).
Today, the deputy is being reappointed as head of the House, in an internal election in 2027, considered uncertain by House leaders. Motta left weakened after facing a situation that made plenary work unfeasible for 30 hours last year. The centrão places on the account of people from Paraíba part of the strain faced by the House in the face of public opinion, as occurred with the project to increase the number of deputies. The dissatisfaction culminated with his predecessor, deputy Arthur Lira (-AL).
In parallel, allies point to a rapprochement between the head of the Chamber and the president in 2026, given the need to preserve his seat and expand the family’s electoral influence in Paraíba.
Motta was with Lula this Tuesday (13) at the government meeting to mark the new phase of tax reform regulation. He traveled to Brasília to participate in the event, while the president of , , decided to be absent.
This year, parties that previously launched opposition candidacies to Motta, such as oeo, have robust plans to grow their benches in the Chamber. The party led by Gilberto Kassab plans to reach 100 seats, while the party led by Antônio Rueda wants to reach 120 seats, considering its federation with the PP.
According to allies, the prospect of an imbalance in the centrão benches could increase the risk of Motta’s reappointment as president of the Chamber in 2027. If re-elected deputy, he could remain in command of the House for another two years, but would need to negotiate with hypertrophied parties his stay after a turbulent first year in office.
In this sense, allies indicate that Motta should get closer to Lula in 2026, with a view to guaranteeing the support of the government bench for his re-election to command of the Chamber. The federation, which forms the hard core of the Lulista base, hopes to have 90 representatives in the next election, driven by control of the machine.
Furthermore, the rapprochement with Lula could also help Motta expand his electoral capital in Paraíba. In addition to renewing his mandate, the president of the Chamber wants to elect his father, Nabor Wanderley, to the Senate.
The state is traditionally Lulu, having given 64.2% of the votes to the PT member in the first round of the 2022 election. or PT’s neutrality, following this trend, would help to consolidate Nabor’s candidacy for the Senate. His main opponent in the race is Veneziano senator Vital do Rego (), who is also seeking re-election with Lula on his ticket.
The government wants to avoid surprises in an election year. The president of the Chamber imposed defeats on Lula in 2025 by giving the reports of the PEC (Proposed Amendment to the Constitution) of Public Security and the Anti-Faction Law Project to opponents. It also let the MP (Provisional Measure) of the (Tax on Financial Operations) expire and guided the dosimetry of the sentences of the defendants of January 8th.
According to interlocutors, Motta’s latest moves aim to pave the way for this rapprochement. The first step was to “get rid” of the dosimetry discussion itself. The second was to revoke, ex officio, the mandates of the deputies (PL-SP) and Alexandre Ramagem (PL-RJ).
Lula, in turn, is also interested in rapprochement. Planalto hopes to quickly approve matters such as the People’s Gas Provisional Measure, which has until February 11th to be voted on, otherwise it will lose validity. The initiative, Planalto calculates, has strong electoral appeal.
PARTY PLANS
Kassab’s PSD lost four seats in the 2022 elections due to the end of the coalitions, electing 42 deputies. This year, the party affiliated governors and candidates for majority elections in states with low performance, aiming to expand its reach.
This is the example of Rio Grande do Sul, where the party has only one deputy and will now have Governor Eduardo Leite. Kassab also brought governor Raquel Lyra, from Pernambuco, where the party didn’t even get a seat in the last election. In Minas Gerais, the party has five representatives, and hopes to grow with the membership of vice-governor Mateus Simões, who will run for government.
Another bet by the party is the so-called “structure vote”, which comes from the transfer of support from the base of mayors to their allied parliamentarians. Kassab’s party was the biggest winner of the 2024 municipal elections, obtaining command of 887 municipalities, five of which were capitals,
União Brasil and PP form a federation, which will lead them to function as one in this year’s election. This alliance model helps in the election of deputies because there is a proportional sum of votes, which makes it easier to win more seats in the Chamber. Currently, the parties have 109 representatives in the House and aim to reach 120 in the next election.
The federation should have the largest share of this year’s electoral fund. In itself, the possibility of more campaign funds attracts candidates. It will also have the most TV time, calculated mainly by the number of deputies from each party.
