Young people disapprove of Lula and could become the target of out-of-polarization candidates

Disapproval of the government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) is higher among Brazilians aged 16 to 34 than in other age groups, according to the Genial/Quaest round of research, released this Wednesday (14). Among them, 51% disapprove of the PT administration, compared to 44% who approve.

Still, this discontent is not being converted, for now, into consistent support for competitive candidacies outside the polarization between Lulism and Bolsonarism, which helps to explain the stability of the electoral framework despite the government’s deterioration.

In terms of age, younger people have higher rates of disapproval than approval, unlike what is observed among voters aged 60 or over, where Lula still maintains an advantage. In this part of the electorate, the PT member has 51% approval, compared to 46% disapproval.

Electoral effect and reading for 2026

From an electoral point of view, the 16 to 34 age group appears as a potential vector of pressure on the government, but still incapable of changing the balance of the dispute on its own. Without an alternative perceived as viable, discontent tends to express itself more as separation than as realignment.

Another relevant factor is the pattern of consumption of political information. The research shows that younger age groups depend more on social networks as the main source of information, an environment marked by greater volatility of narratives and less consolidation of leadership. This contributes to a scenario in which criticism of the government spreads quickly, but is not organized around a clear political project.

In practice, the 16 to 34 age group emerges as one of the main sources of wear and tear in the Lula government, without this representing, for now, a direct electoral threat.

As 2026 approaches, the ability to organize this discontent around a credible candidacy will be decisive. For now, Genial/Quaest suggests that, among young people, disapproval is growing, but the vote continues without a defined direction.