The war in Ukraine can develop in three directions in the future: bad, much worse and hopeful. The bad scenario is the continuation of the fighting in the current form, it is much worse further escalation of the conflict and hopefully a real peace agreement acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine. Former Slovak European Commissioner Ján Figeľ wrote this in his comment published on Wednesday on The European Times portal.
According to him, peace in Eastern Europe is possible and it could be brought about by an agreement between Russia and the USA based on a combination of the principles of the Marshall Planwhich provided American economic aid to Western Europe after the Second World War, and Robert Schuman’s plan, which aimed at the cooperation of formerly hostile European states, reports TASR.
According to Figeľ, the most likely scenario is the continuation of the war in its current form. Despite the Ukrainian attacks on its energy infrastructure, Russia is capable of waging a long and exhausting war. Despite support from the West According to Figeľ, Ukraine does not have the power to expel Russian troops or stop their progress.
However, Figel does not rule out further escalation of the conflict. He points out that both world wars arose mainly from events in Europe. According to him, the unprecedented armaments that NATO and the EU are promoting today can deter future aggression and strengthen the arms industry in Europe. however, this move will not bring peace or create prosperity.
For the former European commissioner indicates a hopeful scenario of a real peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine supported by the United States and Europe. According to him, such an agreement can arise on the basis of a turn in relations between the USA and Russia, which Figeľ considers to be two sides of a proxy war. He points out that the key is for US President Donald Trump to continue his efforts to stop the war.
Figel is convinced that peace in Eastern Europe can be achieved through a combination of the principles of the Schuman and Marshall Planswhich were introduced in Western Europe after the end of World War II.
In his commentary he presents the vision of joint economic and trade cooperation between the USA and Russia in the form of a single market, which would include key commodities for waging war – energy raw materials, rare minerals, but also information technology, artificial intelligence and intellectual property. According to him, such a common market should be open to all free countries in Europe, North America and Central Asia and should be accompanied by an agreement on common security.
“War in such a community would become impossible and unimaginable, as it was in the case of a united Western Europe after 1950,” writes Figeľ, who recalls that even the partnership between Germany and France was unimaginable for many after the Second World War.
According to him, a decent peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia must also include the return of refugees, the protection of minority rights, the transitional administration of disputed territories under international supervision, self-determination based on the democratic principle, the lifting of sanctions, as well as the restoration of destroyed territories and infrastructure.
