Of course. But Iran’s biggest political problem will be who comes after him. In Iran, things happen not transparently, but under the surface. The political elite that came to power after 1979 is very diverse, including the Revolutionary Guards, Ayatollahs and bazaar merchants who were the biggest political base of this regime and who took to the streets at the end of December. Even Iranians often don’t see what’s going on under the surface.
Currently in power is President Masúd Pezeškján, who is a reformist. Spiritual leader Ali Khamenei is a moderate conservative. I would rather look for radicals in the Revolutionary Guards. But the problem is that even though Iran is led by reformists, the West is not willing to deal with them. As a result, they will not get a chance to solve problems with their own people other than through confrontation and weapons.
Let’s go back to history. Shah Pahlavi was overthrown in 1979 by the fathers of today’s protesters. He was pro-Western and made reforms. Today’s protesters are paradoxically calling for the return of his son.
No, the reforms were made by Mohammad Mosaddek, Iran’s only democratically elected leader who was overthrown by the United States. Then Reza Pahlavi’s chess was set. The shah did not make reforms, but ruled the country with the cruelest secret police SAVAK.
Did I consult the wrong sources? Indeed, reforms are attributed to Pahlaví – either land or school. He took the school system out from under the control of the ayatollahs.
He only got the fruits of the “white revolution”. There were reforms, but it was a dictatorship of a narrow elite, the people basically got nothing out of it. Although women got the right to vote then, it caused them to vote for Islamists and ayatollahs.
The Shah lived in incredible prosperity, and what he could not take with him into exile is now displayed as a globe made of precious stones. In 1975, he organized the celebrations of five thousand years of the Iranian monarchy, which cost so much that ten hospitals could be built.
On the outside, the reforms were nicely presented as political propaganda. Of course on both sides. The current regime is damned by the Shah, but his supporters are not a great force either. I don’t think the return of the monarchy would be good for Iranians.
Currently, however, protesters in the streets are calling for the return of Pahlavi’s son.
Some. I saw the only photo of Réza Pahlavi’s son in those shots. But why do they do it? They’re not doing it to make him actually come back. They know the regime hates it. It is a reaction to the regime, they shout in his face what he least wants to hear. This does not mean a real desire for the return of the Shah. People are united in who they hate, but they are not at all united in what they want next. It’s not a monolithic crowd.
There are protesters. There were no major atrocities until the seventh of January, but then armed protesters, whom the regime describes as terrorists, came to the streets. But we don’t know who it is. Since then, the protest has been wild. The ongoing escalation happened in a very strange way. Previous protests in Iran took place during the day, now it’s happening at night.
Pro-government protests also began, huge, of course organized by the regime.
The overall picture is not simple at all. The reality is that these are the biggest protests in Iran since the Islamic Revolution after 1979. They have also spread to small towns. We can talk about a process that affected the whole country.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz claims that the fall of the regime is only a matter of time before the nation rises up in this way.
He talks constantly in that mythological language about the “regime of the mullahs”. This is the same assessment as when President Reagan called the Eastern Bloc an evil empire.
But wasn’t he right? That evil empire was in gulags and millions dead. We were there too and we remember that people could not study or were locked up just because they professed something. Likewise, in Iran, we have people who are confronted with an inhumane regime.
Iran is not central Europe. The Middle East is not central Europe at all. What about the Arab Spring and the development that led to a new set of dictatorships? In Egypt, after General Sisi took office, hundreds of people were executed daily in prisons, and it was not talked about as a tragedy in the West. There are public executions in Saudi Arabia and there is a double standard in the Western media. For Iran, I am not saying that the regime is fine, it is tyrannical, but I would not see it as an exception in this regard.
However, these protests are reportedly the largest since 1979.
Yes and no. For these protesters, political change serves as a tool to improve the economic situation. That is a stumbling block. Iran’s economic situation was not only affected by this radical leadership, but also by sanctions and the fact that President Trump unilaterally withdrew from the nuclear agreement.
Iran has lost its allies, the region has been destabilized due to the conflict in Gaza. The regime is in political crisis and the network of allies through which Iran avoided the blockade has been broken. With no one willing to negotiate a new contract, the currency crashed and the economy collapsed. One dollar is worth one million four hundred thousand rials, and prices have risen by half in one year. People earn an average of 200 euros per month. That’s why they’re upset. It is precisely this economic misery that bothers them more than political oppression. Iranians are great patriots, this was also shown during the attacks on nuclear facilities, when the nation locked down.
Donald Trump says he will not negotiate with those who kill their own. The reports of bullets in the head and in the hearts of the demonstrators are terrible.
And who kills whom? Even sanctions kill. It needs to be seen in context, we can’t blame everything on this regime. That regime is not ideal at all, but it is not only about him. Iranians know that sanctions are the most important reason for economic problems. We should give a hand not to the regime, but to the representatives of Iran, who are willing to solve these things non-violently. Peace negotiations are not about dealing with friends, but with enemies. However, Donald Trump is not willing to act, he just wants to dictate.
The United States will never give up on Iran. We see this basically constantly since the Islamic revolution. It is a Middle Eastern power that has the fourth largest oil reserves in the world.
So you are not very optimistic about Iran.
I’m not. Middle East experts are rarely optimistic.
(The transcript of the interview is shortened. You can listen to and watch it in its entirety in the podcast)
The podcast was prepared by Jaroslav Barborák.
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