The researcher Arto Luukkanen has no doubts when describing the start of 2026 for Moscow: From the Kremlin, the new year has been experienced as a full-fledged political slap in the face. In his opinion, Russia has started the calendar internationally cornered, without the ability to react and seeing how some of its most faithful partners slip through its fingers before the impotent gaze of Vladimir Putin.
For Luukkanen, a specialist in Russian and Eastern European studies, the first stages of the year have revealed something that many analysts had been pointing out: the architecture of power built by Russia in the last decade shows deep cracks. And it’s not just about rhetoric, but about concrete facts that have revealed the real limits of the Kremlin.
A start to the year that discomfits the Kremlin
The researcher describes the beginning of 2026 as “scary” from the Russian perspective. In his analysis, published on his Puheenvuoro blog, he maintains that Russia has seen several of its last strategic pieces fall in a very short time. Countries considered key allies or, at least, tactical partners vis-à-vis the West have begun to leave Moscow’s orbit, weakening its global influence.
Iran and Venezuela appear as the clearest examples. Both regimes, Luukkanen points out, had been presented for years as evidence that Russia could still play in the first division of world geopolitics. However, recent events have proven otherwise.
As the war in Ukraine now enters its fifth year, Russia has not only failed to achieve a clear victory, but has also been unable to project force beyond that conflict. Verbal threats and bellicose rhetoric, Luukkanen emphasizes, They have been left naked because they are not accompanied by effective actions.
Iran and Venezuela: the pieces that make the dominoes fall
According to the researcher, the first big blow for Putin came from the Middle East. The massive protests in Iran have put one of the pillars of Russian strategy in the region in check. Tehran was not only a political ally, but also an essential piece to sustain the network of influence that Moscow had woven in the area.
But the second impact was even more symbolic and painful. On January 3, 2026, the United States launched an operation against Venezuela that ended with the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. For Luukkanen, this episode was a direct humiliation for the Kremlin.
Putin had publicly guaranteed his support for the Venezuelan regime, with which Russia had signed lucrative energy deals. The inability to defend Maduro revealed the fragility of those promises and reinforced the image of a Russia unable to protect its allies when they need it most.
In Luukkanen’s words, these facts summarize the central problem of current Russian foreign policy:
- Russia lacks real means to help its strategic partners.
- Its military power cannot be compared with the superiority of the United States.
- Influence built over years can crumble in a matter of weeks.
Putin, missing and questioned
The internal impact has not gone unnoticed either. Luukkanen points out that Russian military bloggers, traditionally close to the official discourse, now show deep disappointment. The narrative of a strong and feared Russia collides with the reality of a country that observes the events from the sidelines.
Putin himself has contributed to this feeling of weakness. According to the researcher, the Russian president has significantly reduced his public exposure and, during the Christmas holidays, He was only seen in a secluded church, far from the major media spotlights. A gesture that many interpret as a symptom of political isolation.
For Luukkanen, the conclusion is clear: at this moment, Putin is “at zero” in international politics. If Iran ends up falling, he warns, the entire network of instability that Russia had built in the Middle East with Iranian help could completely collapse.
A senior professor at the University of Helsinki and also a regional politician of the Finnish Nationalist Party, Arto Luukkanen thus paints a not very encouraging picture for the Kremlin. A beginning of 2026 that, far from reinforcing Putin’s leadership, has exposed its limits and has turned the new year into a hard blow to the face of the Russian president.
