The announcement that senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) was chosen as a pre-candidate for the Presidency changed the political plan planned by the presidents of Centrão parties. If he is indeed defined as a candidate for president, the state platforms will be severely affected.
On other fronts, the PL pre-candidate has accumulated setbacks involving right-wing allies who could contribute to his national project.
Previously identified by Centrão parties as a presidential option, the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), for example, has given timid support to the senator. Added to this is a nod made by former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro to Tarcísio on social media and the refusal of the governor of Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema (Novo), to withdraw his pre-candidacy to support Flávio’s and be his vice-president.
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Working with the scenario in which the governor of São Paulo would be the candidate of Bolsonarism, there were already negotiations to bring Tarcísio closer to sectors that today are far from the right, such as the mayor of Rio, Eduardo Paes, from the PSD, who should be a candidate for governor.
There were also negotiations for the PSD to provide a platform for Bolsonarism in other states, such as Minas Gerais, with vice-governor Matheus Simões, and in Maranhão, with Eduardo Braide. The president of the PSD, Gilberto Kassab, must now recalculate the route and these candidates must not give a platform to Flávio.
The tendency is for them not to take a position or support the candidacy of the governor of Paraná, Ratinho Júnior (PSD), in 2026.
The same difficult scenario should be reproduced in União Brasil and PP, which should form a federation.
In addition to the PSD in Minas, there are doubts about which path the Republicans will take. Another interested in running for government is senator Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicans), who avoids saying whether he will support Flávio.
“I don’t know, I don’t even know if I’m a candidate yet. I’ll resolve it in March and I’ll see about it in March.”
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In Bahia, one of the PT’s main electoral colleges, but where President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s party could face difficulties, the right could now suffer a setback. The former mayor of Salvador ACM Neto, vice-president of União Brasil, should be a candidate for governor, but he also resists speaking publicly about Flávio Bolsonaro’s pre-candidacy.
The assessment is that launching someone from the former president’s family brings a lot of rejection to Jair Bolsonaro and that candidates for center-right governors will want to avoid associating themselves with Flávio.
There are also difficulties in the alliance between the PP and Flávio in Pernambuco, Bahia, Ceará, Maranhão and Piauí, the state of senator Ciro Nogueira, president of the party. Ciro himself has nodded to Flávio and discarded Tarcísio, but there is a growing belief within the União-PP group that neutrality be declared.
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Even though the most recent Quaest Survey gave impetus to Flávio’s pre-candidacy, Centrão leaders resist embarking on the electoral project.
In a first round scenario, Lula appears with 36% of voting intentions, against 23% for Flávio Bolsonaro and 9% for Tarcísio. In the same survey, in a second round scenario, the PT member would score 45% against 38% for Flávio. In the scenario in which the dispute is with Tarcísio, Lula would have 44% against 39% for the governor of São Paulo.
Party leaders say it is too early to measure the senator’s electoral potential and that he will need to show political viability. With Jair Bolsonaro’s decision to launch his son, the Centrão parties have been evaluating different paths and there is still no unified decision between them.
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The command of União Brasil has used the pre-candidacy of the governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado (União), as a pretext for not supporting Flávio. Even though there are questions from the PP, members of the Union leadership say that having the governor as a pre-candidate is a better scenario than supporting the PL senator.
In turn, the PSD is working on the possibility of launching Ratinho Júnior or the governor of Rio Grande do Sul, Eduardo Leite (PSD). The Republicans have indicated that they may adopt neutrality.
Even if they build opposition candidacies and rule out supporting Lula, an additional challenge for Flávio is that all these parties are moving towards releasing alliances with the PT in some states, even in the scenario of formal support for opposition candidates.
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Representative Elmar Nascimento (União-BA), member of the party’s National Executive, said that Flávio could have support from the party “if he shows viability” and that the result of the survey “was already expected due to his surname”.
There is an understanding that Flávio does not have electoral appeal, especially in the Northeast states, and that his only quality is to be a politician considered pragmatic and with transit in Brasília, criteria that cannot necessarily translate into votes.
With the possibility of Tarcísio being a candidate, there was also a chance of a platform in Ceará, with Ciro Gomes (PSDB), and in Pernambuco, with Raquel Lyra (PSD). Now the tendency is for Flávio to be left without a competitive gubernatorial candidate in these states.
“It’s not likely (about Raquel Lyra’s support for Flávio), but he (Flávio) will have a platform and will have votes. There is a part of the electorate that identifies. But there is a polarization that has less to do with the national issue, it takes place between two very important young leaders, the governor Raquel and the mayor of Recife, João. Both will not be on the Bolsonarist platform”, said the Minister of Fisheries, André de Paula, who is part of the board of the PSD in Pernambuco.
