With the completion of summer planting in the main areas of the country, the government confirms that the 2025/26 harvest will be record. In its fourth survey of the season, Conab (National Supply Company) predicts 353.13 million tons, 0.3% more than in 2024/25.
The star of agribusiness, as expected, is soybeans, which will have a harvest of 176.12 million tons, according to estimates, an increase of 2.7%.
This volume is credited to the 2.8% increase in area, compared to the previous season, and climate expectations, which have been favoring the crop. The exception is Mato Grosso do Sul and Goiás, which face irregular rains.
Another important culture, the cornalso showed an increase of 4% in the estimated total planted area, adding up the three harvests, of 22.7 million hectares. However, due to climatic events such as storms, hail, low and high temperatures and summers in the South Region and lack of rain in the initial stage of development in Minas Gerais, the projection is that the cereal will have a drop of 1.5% in production and 5.3% in productivity, considering the three harvests.
In relation to production, it goes from 141 million tons in 2024/25 to 138.9 million in this harvest. As regards productivity, the estimate is that it will fall by 343 kg/ha, from 6,457 kg/ha in the last agricultural cycle and now by 6,114 kg/ha.
Other summer crops
The sowing of first-crop crops is in its final phase and the first harvests have already begun. In the case of cottonthe forecast is for a 2.8% reduction in the cultivated area, which should result in a 6.3% smaller harvest, with 3.8 million tons. In the case of peanutthe expectation is for a 1.9% drop in production, with 1.1 million tons.
The favorites on Brazilian plates, rice and beansshould also have smaller harvests. Rice production is expected to decrease by 13.3%, due to a 9.9% drop in the sown area. The total will be 11.06 million tons, according to Conab.
Total bean production, including the three harvests, is estimated at 3 million tons, 0.5% below the previous harvest. In both cases, falling food prices discouraged cultivation in 2025/26.
IBGE estimate
This Thursday (15), IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) also released its Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production, with the forecast of a record harvest of 346.1 million tons for 2025. The institute works with a calendar year (January-December), while Conab carries out surveys with a harvest year (July-June).
Last year’s result was driven by the forecast of record production of military (166.1 million tons), corn (141.7 million), cotton (9.9 million) and canephora coffee (1.3 million). Compared to 2024, total grain production was 18.2% higher.
At the same time, the institute presented the third forecast for the 2026 harvest, estimated at 339.8 million tons, which represents a drop of 1.8%, or 6.3 million tons, compared to the 2025 record.
The harvested area in 2025 was estimated at 81.6 million hectares, an increase of 3.2% compared to the previous year. There was expansion in the areas of cotton, rice, soybeans, corn and sorghum, while beans and wheat registered a reduction.
According to IBGE, Grain production has more than doubled in the last 13 years, from 162 million tons in 2012 to the record volume of 2025, while the planted area grew 66.8% in the period. For Carlos Alfredo Guedes, Agriculture manager at the institute, the advance is linked to productivity gains, the result of investments in research and technology in the field.
Regionally, the Central-West concentrated 51.6% of national grain production in 2025. Mato Grosso was the largest producer in the country, with 32.0% of the total, followed by Paraná, Goiás, Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso do Sul and Minas Gerais, which together accounted for 79.7% of the national harvest.
