The rapid aging of the population has once again put on the table one of the most sensitive debates in Spain: to what extent the current public pension system is sustainable in the long term. With an increasingly high life expectancy and a birth rate at historic lows, concern is growing about the balance between active workers and pensioners, leading some experts to admit scenarios that are generating growing concern among Spaniards, in a context of successive increases in the retirement age, according to the digital newspaper Noticias Trabajo.
This topic was recently addressed by economist Luis Garvía during his participation in the television program Y Ahora Sonsoles, where he highlighted the dimension of the challenge that demographic aging represents for the Spanish social state.
Life expectancy increased by a decade in just 20 years
According to the economist, the evolution of life expectancy is one of the central factors of this problem. “Life expectancy 20 years ago was 74 years; now we live 84 years”, he recalled, highlighting that this increase significantly extends the period during which pensions have to be paid.
This phenomenon, he explained, forces us to rethink the system’s entire financing model, since more years of life also mean more years of retirement, healthcare and social support.
Fewer taxpayers for each pensioner
Alongside greater longevity, the relationship between taxpayers and pensioners has deteriorated markedly in recent decades. According to data cited by Luis Garvía, “20 years ago there were five people paying for every pensioner; today there are only 2.3”.
This evolution translates into a significant increase in public expenditure associated with the older population, not only with pensions, but also with dependency services, long-term care and social support, putting pressure on public accounts, says the same source. This scenario comes at a time when the legal retirement age has been rising progressively in Spain, fueling fears that future changes could require even longer contributory careers.
“Mathematically, retirement would have to be at age 72”
Asked what the retirement age should be today to guarantee the balance of the system, the economist was direct. “At 72 years old, according to mathematical calculations, so that the math would add up”, he stated, acknowledging that this was a figure well above the legal age currently in force.
The reference to such a high age has once again sparked public debate in Spain, where many citizens express concern about the possibility of further increases in the future. Here ‘next door’, in 2026, the legal retirement age is 66 years and 10 months for those under 38 years of age and three months of discounts, or 65 years for those who exceed this contribution period.
A trend that is already in the law, but may not be enough
According to , Luis Garvía also recalled that legislation approved in 2013 provides for a progressive increase in the retirement age until 2027. However, he warned that demographic developments could make this adjustment insufficient.
“If we look at people who were born in Spain and those who are retiring, the problem is that we are no better off than we were 10 years ago”, he stated, reinforcing the idea that the aging of the population continues to worsen.
More years of life, more social challenges
The economist stressed that the problem does not just lie in the payment of pensions. “The problem is that, fortunately, we are going to live much longer”, he explained, drawing attention to the growing impact of issues linked to addiction and mental health on the elderly population.
These factors, according to the expert, significantly increase the State’s financial effort and make an in-depth debate about the future of the pension system and social policies in Spain inevitable, in a context in which fewer and fewer workers support an increasingly larger retired population.
In Portugal, the aging of the population and the sustainability of the pension system are also topics under debate, in a context marked by increased life expectancy and low birth rates, challenges similar to those that concern Spain today.
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