Polls point to André Ventura, from Chega, as the favorite this Sunday (18), but indicate difficulties in winning in the second round
The far-right candidate André Ventura appears as the favorite for the first round of the presidential elections this Sunday (18) in although he has little chance of winning in the second round.
Polls place the president of the Chega party in the lead in the first round, but they differ on the candidate who could face him on February 8, who will probably be the successor to the current president, the conservative Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa.
Some surveys predict a dispute between Ventura and the socialist António José Seguro, while others point to the name of Luís Marques Mendes, supported by the right-wing government of Prime Minister Luís Montenegro.
Among the record number of 11 candidates, there are other names with chances, such as retired admiral Henrique Gouveia e Melo, who led the vaccination campaign against covid-19, and liberal MEP João Cotrim Figueiredo.
If the predictions are confirmed, Ventura’s dramatic electoral rise since he founded Chega in 2019 will be consolidated.
“On then”
The party obtained 22.8% of the votes and 60 deputies in last May’s legislative elections, surpassing the Socialist Party as the main opposition force.
In Portugal, the power of the head of state is mainly symbolic, but he can act as an arbitrator in the event of a crisis and has the right to dissolve Parliament to call legislative elections.
Although it is the government, and not the president, who runs the country, Ventura ran as a candidate to contain the political threat represented by retired admiral Gouveia e Melo. The latter was for a long time the favorite in the polls, with a speech contrary to the traditional parties.
“André Ventura presented himself as a candidate to retain his electorate. He may have the surprise of expanding it”, political scientist António Costa Pinto, from the Institute of Social Sciences (ICS) at the University of Lisbon, told AFP.
Even if he is defeated in the second round, the result he obtains in three weeks could “reinforce, in the eyes of Portuguese society, the idea of Chega’s electoral growth”, he added.
Costa Pinto compares these elections to the French presidential elections of 2002, when Jean-Marie Le Pen, then president of the far-right National Front, reached the second round.
“But it’s not as shocking as before, because we’re on the wave” that drives the extreme right around the world, said the expert.
An “open” election
In Portugal, a strengthening of the extreme right would further complicate the situation of Montenegro’s minority government, which depends on Chega to approve part of its program.
“The election is open”, assured the prime minister, who was involved in the campaign of Luís Marques Mendes, tied in the polls with the socialist António José Seguro.
Retired admiral Gouveia e Melo became the favorite, but performed poorly in television debates and does not have the support of a party.
The liberal João Cotrim Figueiredo was affected by the controversy generated by accusations of harassment made by a former collaborator.
*With AFP
