Carnival begins in Venezuela in February. Fifteen teenagers and eight adults from a town in the state of Anzoátegui decided to anticipate the revelry in the streets and were arrested by the Bolivarian National Police (PNB). The uniformed They were confused with a small group that was celebrating the capture of Nicolás Maduro by a North American commando. Although they were released a few days later, the situation, at one point “carnivalesque”, showed the extent to which Venezuelan public spaces have remained closed since January 3. The opposition, in any of its variants, has not dared to demonstrate for the momentperhaps because he is not clear about what his slogans and plans are.
Donald Trump received María Corina Machado at the White House this Thursday, and, incidentally, the “gift” of his Nobel Peace Prize. “A wonderful woman who has been through a lot,” he defined her. However, the “gesture of mutual respect” did not appear to alter their strategic priorities. A day before, the magnate had described the “president in charge”, Delcy Rodríguez, as “terrific” due to the “excellent conversation” about the oil Venezuelan and his minerals. If the billionaire allowed himself to predict Truth on his social network a “spectacular” collaboration with Maduro’s constitutional heir, From now on, what is the place of those who bitterly opposed the Miraflores Palace? since it was occupied by the “worker president” in 2014? That role does not seem to be clear after Rodríguez herself stood out on social networks the “polite” tone of the conversation he had with Trump and that the magnate’s spokesperson, Caroline Leavitt, will ratify on Thursday the low assessment he has of Machado as future leadership.“It’s not about supporting a person, I am part of a movement,” she said, 12 days after declaring herself “ready” to lead the change process. “Know that we are counting on President Trump for the liberation of Venezuela.” It is, however, a present mystery as to how the tycoon “counts” on his opponents.
History shows that Its roadmap may change, and so may that of the beheaded Government itself. and rearmed that tests its ability to accept the political conditions imposed on it from the outside. Meanwhile, the streets are empty of opponents. They have barely been heard raising their voices together to demand that all political prisoners be released.
Machado, the limit
Machado’s political problem at the present is the “president in charge”, and he made it known to the North American congressmen. “I want to warn that, if there is something that this regime knew how to do efficiently in the past, it was to buy time and take advantage of the efforts made in good faith. Delcy Rodríguez is part of the regime”he pointed out. The “president in charge” perceives the same thing, although in the opposite direction. He had spoken at length with the president of the United States before announcing that “a new moment” was opening in Venezuela that “allows understanding from divergence and ideological political diversity“. How far does his supposed outstretched hand go? Analysts have no doubt that the Nobel Prize winner and the most intransigent sectors, including Voluntad Popular, of the exiled Leopoldo Lopezthey do not appear in your invitation.
Some analysts remember that Machado was never fully accepted as the main opposition reference by some leaders. Before October 2023 he was a side character in the Venezuelan drama who expressed the positions closest to USA. When she won the primary in that space and was banned by the courts, she began to exercise leadership that was behind the candidacy of Edmundo González Urrutia and the claim of victory at the polls against Maduro, in July 2024. That centrality within the country was diluted as he won. recognition in Venezuelan migration, especially in Florida. Obtaining the Nobel Peace Prize has allowed it to preserve its relevance, especially abroad. The express sympathy he had with the North American armed intervention It did not raise further accompaniment. It is true that those leaders who reject their command nor do they dare openly challenge it.
The center and its dilemma
“The US cannot treat María Corina Machado as if she represented nothing“he complained Felipe González, the former president of the Spanish Government, on the NTN24 channel. In his opinion, the Nobel Prize winner “is the most representative of the desires of Venezuelan society.” Henrique Capriles does not necessarily think the same. The former presidential candidate who lost the elections with Hugo Chavez and Maduro by a small percentage, and who currently occupies a seat in the National Assembly (AN), convinced that institutional spaces should not be renounced no matter how much they are manipulated, is trying to establish a political alternative more inclined towards the center. Their interventions are limited in the midst of general uncertainty. He maintains that in these “complex times” we must “act with responsibility“without stopping fighting” until conquering democracy and the well-being of all Venezuelans.” Any solution, he insisted, “must be peaceful, constitutional and respecting the will of the people in their right to decide.” The phrase has turned out to be sufficiently ambiguous to be interpreted as a call for new elections when conditions exist or the right of González Urrutia to assume the stolen presidency in 2024. The second possibility has been, however, ruled out by the events themselves.
Capriles believes that Venezuela needs “turn the page on revenge and improvisation”. And to do this, the prisons must be completely emptied and the exiles can return. “It cannot be ignored that those who remain in power today were responsible for leading the country into the deepest political, social and economic crisis in our history.” The diagnosis – which includes the “failed dialogues” and the list of “abuses and abuses” – about the past can be categorical when thinking about what happened and at the same time insufficient to intervene in the present to the extent that Rodríguez has Trump’s endorsement.
Other moderate opponents have also distanced themselves from Machado’s actions, such as Henri Falcon. “I expect breadth, dialogue and wisdom from Delcy Rodríguez so as not to compromise sovereignty and independence,” said the deputy, convinced that Venezuela is experiencing a “pre-transition.” Luis Emilio Rondón, another opposition legislatorconsidered that the National Assembly “must be a space for problem solving of the country” and the instance where “our differences are resolved through participation.” There is no evidence that the Executive wants that.
The hardest sectors describe the moderates as traitors. Anger does not take away their confusion. They find themselves without the ability to influence, they barely manage to look towards Washington to know what to do. And Washington emits signals that confuse them more.
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