Oil closed on Friday (16) on a high, driven by increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a recovery movement after recent losses. The market reacted to news involving the USA and Iran, in addition to assessing supply risks in the short term, in an environment still marked by caution given the prospect of excess global production.
Na New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), o WTI oil for February closed up 0.42% (US$0.25), at US$59.44 per barrel. Already Brent for Marchtraded on London’s Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), rose 0.58% (US$0.37), at US$64.13 per barrel. During the week, they advanced 0.54% and 1.25%, respectively.
BOK Financial notes that oil is trying to maintain a more constructive technical structure after fluctuating across a wide price range over the past week. For the house, the lack of progress in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and the expectation of new sanctions against Iran offer some support to prices, even with signs that the most acute geopolitical risks have temporarily cooled. US President Donald Trump said this Friday that he respects the fact that all executions of protesters scheduled for Thursday (15) have been canceled in Iran.
Meanwhile, Phillip Nova points out that sentiment continues to be the main driver of the market, with headlines linked to tensions in Iran and supply risks in Venezuela provoking quick but short-lived reactions. According to the brokerage, sanctions and geopolitical news have generated occasional volatility, without indicating, for now, a real tightening in physical oil flows.
A report from E&E News/Politico he also mentioned that the US Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, sees increased production in Venezuela as a factor in downward pressure on prices, reinforcing the perception of looser supply in the medium term.
Fitch Ratings estimates that the global oil market should remain oversupplied in 2026, limiting the geopolitical risk premium even in the face of greater volatility. According to the agency, possible interruptions in Iran or specific increases in Venezuelan production tend to be absorbed by excess supply, while OPEC’s future strategy between volume and price will be decisive for market dynamics.
*With information from Dow Jones Newswires
