About to run for re-election, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva sees international politics gaining greater weight in Brazilian routine, in an unfavorable scenario compared to his two other mandates. The political color map in South America is changing, and opinion polls show that more right-wing foreign leaders have become more well-regarded in Brazil, while PT’s former left-wing allies have lost power or seen their ratings collapse in the country. At the same time, however, the motto of “sovereignty” after interventions by the United States may favor the PT member.
Since assuming his current mandate, Lula has seen the left lose elections and leave power in three countries on the continent: Argentina, Bolivia and Chile. Venezuela, from which it had left in 2024 in the wake of the anti-democratic resurgence of Chavismo, suffered attacks from the United States that culminated in the capture of Nicolás Maduro. In Colombia, leftist Gustavo Petro is another recurring target of Donald Trump’s threats, and the country goes to the polls in May with opposition favoritism. The only one on the continent that switched from right to left since the beginning of 2023 was little Uruguay.
Data from the Latinobarómetro survey, which measures the image of a series of presidents from the American continent every year, shows that 58% of Brazilians evaluated Maduro negatively, and only 5% positively, in the last round of the survey, in 2024. It was the worst index achieved by a Venezuelan president in Brazil in the historical series. In 2020, Maduro’s negative rating was 42%, and his positive rating was 7%.
The use of the Venezuelan regime by the opposition to the PT is more inviting today than two decades ago, when Hugo Chávez had a 26% negative rating in Brazil and a 13% positive rating. During this period, Venezuelan leaders became better known to Brazilians: 55% did not know how to evaluate Chávez in 2005, compared to 33% who did not give their opinion on Maduro in 2024.
USA
Latinobarómetro data also points out that, if US President George W. Bush’s assessment was worse than that of Chávez in Brazil in 2005, today the situation tends to be different with Trump. In the last round of the survey, Trump received positive marks from 26% of Brazilians. At the time, which needs to be put into perspective because the tariff had not yet been imposed on the country, 37% evaluated the American president negatively, a lower rate than he had in 2020.
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Despite the subsequent impact of the tariffs, other right-wing leaders and Trump allies have seen their prestige rising in Brazil and neighboring countries. According to Latinobarómetro, Nayib Bukele, president of El Salvador, in Central America, became last year the leader with the best evaluation in Latin America, considering the countries surveyed. Milei’s rating, although behind Lula, also surpassed that of other left-wing figures. Bukele in the security area and Milei in the economic area have become the great “models” that the right propagates to oppose the Brazilian president.
In the view of political scientist Maurício Santoro, collaborator at the Center for Political-Strategic Studies of the Navy, Donald Trump’s actions in Brazil and neighboring countries can help the opposition to Lula, on the one hand, but also generate electoral gains for the PT member, with the mobilization of the discourse of national sovereignty.
A Genial/Quaest survey released last week showed that the majority of Brazilians approve of the Trump government’s intervention in Venezuela to capture President Nicolás Maduro, who was once closer to the PT. Most of those interviewed also disapprove of Lula’s stance, who harshly criticized American action in the neighboring country.
— We will probably have more space for these major international themes in the 2026 campaign, and Lula will try to make sovereignty something important in his platform. Trump has sought a direct connection with politicians such as Bolsonaro in Brazil, Milei in Argentina and Kast in Chile, which generates admirers for him — he notes. — On the other hand, there is also a strong rejection of direct US interventions in Brazil.
The global tariffs announced by Trump in different stages, throughout 2025, increased the negative perception of the American president in Brazil, according to Atlas/Bloomberg research. At the time, Bolsonaro’s link to the tariff and Lula’s reaction, which was praised by Trump himself at the UN General Assembly, coincided with an improvement in the PT member’s evaluation in Brazil.
In relation to Venezuela, opponents on the left in Latin America transformed the deterioration of the Chavista regime into an electoral trend. Brazil was one of the last places visited by Maduro, in 2023, when there was already a US capture order against him. On that occasion, Lula hugged the Venezuelan president and said that his then ally was not a “bad man”. Several old images of PT support for the authoritarian leader were recently rescued.
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The change in the relationship with Venezuela came in 2024. After Maduro broke the agreement that provided for the release of the election minutes in that country, the Brazilian government did not recognize his victory, and Lula criticized his former ally’s stance.
Coloring
During Lula’s first governments, South America experienced the so-called “pink wave”, with the proliferation of left-wing presidents. In a world of less pronounced political friction, it was also possible to minimize differences in relation to those who were not from the same political camp.
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— In terms of foreign policy, Lula was, in his first governments, an important leader in Latin America and had the capacity to dialogue even with presidents who were more ideologically distant, such as Álvaro Uribe, of Colombia. Today there is a profound difference between right and left, and governments are unable to work together — analyzes Santoro.
