After an initial energetic reaction, President Lula (PT) lowered his tone and has avoided speaking publicly about the actions of the United States in Venezuela. Even so, the government assesses that the rapprochement of the presidents of the two countries, and , undermines the political exploration of the PT’s historic alliance with Chavismo.
Lula’s aides predict a reduced influence of international issues in this year’s presidential campaign, not only in relation to Venezuela. Among the reasons is the understanding that international issues are often ignored by public opinion because they do not affect Brazilians’ daily lives.
The PT’s bet today is that the protests and repression in Iran and the successive crises caused by Trump, for example, will have low resonance with the electorate in October.
The government and party’s proximity to Venezuela has always been a flank that the opposition exploited in attacks on Lula. One of the former president’s (PL) mottos, for example, was to state that Brazil would follow the social and economic collapse of the neighboring country in the event of the PT’s victory in the elections.
Lula’s allies, however, say that he began a movement to remove Nicolás Maduro in 2024, when he did not openly recognize the dictator’s victory in the last election in Venezuela. The election was filled with allegations of fraud.
Although the Foreign Ministry classified Maduro’s capture as a “kidnapping”, care was taken not to send a message that could be read as an endorsement of the Venezuelan regime.
Behind the scenes, Lula’s allies understand that the dictator’s departure from the scene, removed from Venezuela by the US military and taken to trial in the US, leaves the PT member in a more politically comfortable situation, as it undermines attempts at association between the two leaders.
The fact that Trump recognizes Delcy —who was the country’s vice president— as Washington’s main interlocutor in Venezuela and has sidelined opponent María Corina Machado also reduces pressure on Lula, according to aides.
For the PT, the opposition will try to raise Lula’s relationship with Chavismo in Venezuela to nullify electoral gains in areas that the party considers the government’s strengths. PT members want to highlight measures such as income tax exemption for those earning up to R$5,000.
Another bet is on proposals that affect the work of Brazilians, such as the end of the 6×1 scale and zero fares for public transport.
The PT’s plan is for the bilateral relationship between Brazil and the USA to enter the campaign based on Lula’s reaction to the tariff imposed by the Republican in 2025. The idea is to show that the president managed to reverse the situation without giving up national sovereignty.
Interference in the election
The main fear regarding the international scenario for the election continues to be one — not just from the government, but from digital platforms.
The expectation is that the positive relationship that has developed between Lula and Trump since the first meeting between the two at the UN General Assembly (United Nations), last September, will reduce the likelihood of direct interference from Washington. The unpredictability of the American and the volatility of the international scenario, however, leave allies apprehensive.
Brazil is counting on the possibility of Trump using the same strategy in Brazil adopted in the elections in Argentina and Honduras this year. In the Argentine legislative election, Trump conditioned the granting of a US$20 billion financial aid package to the country on a good performance by Milei’s party in the election.
In the Honduran presidential election, Trump openly supported the ultra-right candidate, Nasry “Tito” Asfura.
