The Portuguese are called today to the polls for the first round of , in which the , already official opposition in the Iberian state, may go to another level, sending its candidate to the second round.
Polling stations open at 08:00 (local time; 10:00 Greek time) and the first exit poll predictions are expected to be broadcast at 20:00 (22:00).
What do the polls show?
According to opinion polls, Andre Ventura, the president of the far-right Sega (“Enough”) party, may emerge in first place, but the 43-year-old lawmaker is considered to have little chance of winning in the second round, which is scheduled to be held on February 8.
After weeks of campaigning with an entirely uncertain outcome, Socialist candidate Antonio José Seguro appears to have a narrow lead over liberal MEP Joao Cotrim Figueredo in the race for second place.
Out of a total of 11 candidates—a record—two others are considered to have some chance of making it to the second round: that of the right-wing ruling faction Luis Marx Mendez and also Admiral E.A. presenting himself as an independent, Enrique Gouvaia i Melu.
The winner of the election will succeed the conservative Marcelo Hebelo de Souza, who was elected twice, both times in the first round. After the restoration of democracy in Portugal, only once presidential elections were decided in the second round, in 1986.
“People’s Candidate”
The only candidate who had also contested the office in the previous presidential election, in 2021, Andre Ventura, had then received 11.9% of the vote, or 500,000 votes, finishing in third place, although at a short distance from a dissenting socialist candidate.
Since then, the Portuguese far-right faction has increased its strength, securing 22.8% of the vote and electing 60 members of parliament in May 2025—overtaking the Socialist Party and becoming the official opposition in the government under conservative Prime Minister Luis Montenegro.
“If the far right registers a new strong performance, this will confirm its dominance of the political landscape” and open a new chapter in the “ongoing battle in the ranks of the right, between the traditional right and the emerging far right,” the Teneo analysis center said in a note.
Mr. Ventura closed his campaign by demanding that other right-wing parties not “raise obstacles” for him in a possible run-off against the Socialist candidate.
At the same time, in his latest campaign appearance, the self-proclaimed “people’s candidate” hardened his tone again, rejecting any possibility of trying to “please everyone” and promising to “restore order” to the country.
“I hope he will pass”, and “not just in the first round”, but that he will win “in the second”, emphasized his fan, Isabel Peixoto. “The other candidates belong to parties that already exercised power, and this is the result. Always the same!” added the 62-year-old unemployed woman.
“Calling the democrats”
Socialist candidate Segourou, 63, anchored in the center, instead played the cards of unity and moderation, presenting himself as a defender of democracy and public sector services. “I call on all democrats, all progressives and all humanists (voters) to strengthen our candidacy with their votes,” he said on the last day of the campaign.
“We need a president who will improve the situation in this country, because health, education, everything (…) everything has to be rebuilt,” said Sofia Talaigou, a 55-year-old fruit and vegetable seller who works in a market in the southern suburbs of Lisbon, yesterday.
Portugal’s president, who is elected by universal suffrage, typically has no executive powers. But it can act as an arbitrator in cases of crisis and has the ability to dissolve parliament and call elections.
