Hundreds of snakes woke up from hibernation. Did they predict the deadly earthquake that followed?

Snakes, birds, dogs and goats. Fluctuations in atmospheric pressure, changes in the magnetic field Over the years, there has been no shortage of reports of animals that appear to be able to predict natural catastrophes, and explanations for this ability — which science has not yet been able to prove.

In 1975, in the Chinese city of Haicheng, hundreds of snakes came out of hibernation early — shortly before a devastating 7.3 magnitude earthquake, recalls .

In another case, in 2014, before a wave of tornadoes hit Tennessee, USA, birds that had just arrived on their annual migration, fled their breeding territorieshaving flown 700 km to get away from the region hit by the tornadoes.

There is no shortage of examples of animals that seem to predict natural catastropheswith reports dating back to Ancient Greecewhen the historian Thucydides wrote about rats, weasels, snakes and dogs that abandoned the city of Helice before an earthquake in 373 BC.

Many natural disasters take us by surprise, and it is tempting to entertain the notion that animals can be like crystal ball seers.

Even today, although weather forecasting can give advance warning of weather-related events such as hurricanes and floods, the science of seismology still cannot predict earthquakes accurately.

Os tsunamison the other hand, that follow seismic activity in our oceans can often be predicted, but remote and vulnerable communities often lack the infrastructure necessary for effective warning systems.

But although it makes sense that we look for clues that can help us avoid the impacts of natural disasters, the science behind animal prediction It’s quite fragile.

Not only there is not enough reference data long-term assessment of ‘normal’ animal behavior that we can compare with so-called “unusual behavior”, as reports of this behavior tend to be collected retrospectivelyrather than at the time of the incident itself.

This confirmation bias, our very human tendency to interpret information so that adjustment to our pre-existing beliefsplays an important role here.

The fact that the conditions are impossible to replicate with any accuracy, due to the very nature of these catastrophic events, it is also problematic.

What we consider ‘unusual’ when it comes to the movements, vocalizations, eating or hibernation habits of animals is highly subjective and based on our still limited understanding of the sensory sensitivities and behavioral responses of most species.

Some scientists have suggested that before natural disasters, animals may be respond to tiny fluctuations in atmospheric pressureor changes in magnetic field properties of Earth that may precede a catastrophic event. These theories are intriguing and therefore possibly worthy of exploration.

It is true that Many animals are naturally more sensitive to environmental factors, including seismic activitythan we do, but so far no one has found any good evidence that we could use this sensitivity as a forecast tool.

In recent years, scientists have been trying to determine the extent to which animals have the ability to anticipate catastrophic events — and how they do so.

This is the case of a team from the Max Planck Institute for Animal Behavior in Germany, who previously carried out some intriguing studies on answers from cows, sheep, dogs and goats to seismic activity in Italy.

In a 2018 review of 180 academic articles related to unusual animal behavior before earthquakesa team of scientists from the Helmholtz Center for Geosciences GFZ in Germany, found a strong correlation between this behavior and the typical pattern of so-called ‘preshocks’ before earthquakes.

The team hypothesized that the animals observed were actually react following these smaller tremors – rather than in anticipation of the main seismic event.

Despite these efforts, find more than one correlation Between anomalous animal behaviors and the subsequent occurrence of catastrophic events has been a challenge for scientists.

Everything indicates that animals are not fortune tellers. But as our Galician brothers say: “I don’t believe in witches, but there are some”.