Fund estimates growth of 2.6% in the volume of international exchanges, despite a positive revision compared to previous forecasts and expectations of recovery in 2027
O predicts a sharp slowdown in the volume of global trade, from 4.1% in 2025 to 2.6% this year, according to the quarterly update of the institution’s Global Economic Perspectives, released this Monday (19). Despite this, the result represents an increase compared to the Fund’s projections in October, of 3.6% and 2.3%, respectively. For 2027, an acceleration of 3.1% is expected, unchanged forecast.
The IMF assesses that global trade remains relatively robust, with expansion in technology exports offsetting losses in other categories. The institution highlights that last year’s performance also reflects the advance on tariffs for which expanded the stocking of products in several countries, and adjustments in the flow of trade with the new policies.
“In the medium term, expansionary fiscal packages in economies with a current account surplus should contribute to the decline in global imbalances, along with the strength of the jump in investments in technology-related businesses”, points out the report, adding that the US should be the biggest beneficiary of new capital flows even with some moderation in the future.
The IMF estimates only include data for the period ending in December 2025, assuming that policies in place at the time would be permanent. Therefore, the calculations do not include any changes made subsequently, such as the recent trade agreement between the US and Taiwan or the imposition of tariffs on countries related to Iran or .
In December, the US effective tariff rate was estimated at 18.5%, below the 18.7% projection made in October by the IMF. The corresponding effective tariff rate for the rest of the world remained unchanged at 3.5%.
*With Estadão Content
