Review reflects impact of US tariffs on Brazilian exports; According to the International Monetary Fund, the country should grow below the average for Latin America and emerging countries,
O again reduced the growth projection of the Brazilian population for 2026, in a report published this Monday (19). The organization estimates that the country will grow just 1.6% this year, 0.3 percentage points below the forecast released in October.
If the IMF projection is confirmed, Brazil should record a slowdown of almost 1 pp compared to 2025, when domestic GDP should have grown 2.5%. The new estimates are contained in the updated World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, released today.
Part of the Fund’s review of Brazil’s growth prospects for this year is due to the increase in tariffs on Brazilian exports to . The country was one of the most affected by the Donald Trump administration’s trade policies, with a rate that reached 50%, but was reduced after negotiations between Brazil and the United States. Despite the repeal of the 40% additional tariff in November last year, billions of dollars worth of Brazilian products sold to the American market still face the combined 50% tax rate – 10% reciprocal tariffs and 40% additional tariffs specific to Brazil
In the Fund’s view, Brazil should only accelerate its pace in terms of economic growth in 2027. The IMF estimates Brazilian GDP expansion of 2.3% next year, an improvement of 0.1 pp compared to its previous projection.
Latin America and emerging
Even so, the country is expected to grow below the average of countries in the and the Caribbean, according to the IMF. The Fund estimates expansion for the region of 2.2% this year and 2.7% next year. According to the organization, countries are in “different cyclical positions”.
The Fund also warns of the risk of a “significant” escalation in geopolitical tensions in Latin America, with the potential to trigger “substantial negative supply shocks”. The Fund does not, however, mention Venezuela, which suffered an attack from the United States in January, leading to the fall of dictator Nicolás Maduro.
The discrepancy in Brazil’s economic growth increases when compared to the advance projected by the organization for emerging and developing markets. The average estimated by the IMF for these countries, of 4.2% in 2026, is more than double that expected for the Brazilian economy this year. For 2027, emerging countries should also grow at a faster pace, reaching 4.1%, the Fund projects.
The discrepancy in Brazilian performance increases when compared to the estimated average for emerging and developing markets. For 2026, the IMF projects an increase of 4.2% for this group, more than double the rate predicted for the Brazilian economy. In 2027, emerging markets are also expected to grow at a faster pace, reaching 4.1%.
*With Estadão Content
