An Aximage survey carried out in January (for Chega) placed Seguro at 16.8%

André Ventura would be the winner – by far – in the first round of the presidential elections. The survey was already carried out in January.

The first mistake was ours: that André Ventura had shared on social media a survey about the presidential elections that did not exist. These would be invented numbers.

After contacting Chega’s campaign communications office, and after confirmation from Aximage, we verified that the survey was indeed . At the request of Chega, more specifically Folha Nacional.

The second error was from this survey, in which Andre Ventura appeared as the clear winner in the first round, with 24,6% of voting intentions.

That’s not where Aximage’s poll failed. Even because the president of Chega puts them with 23,52% of votes. It’s an almost equal percentage.

The big differences can be seen in (almost) all the other main candidates for President of the Republic.

First, the poll order:
1st André Ventura
2nd Marques Mendes
3rd Gouveia e Melo
4th António José Seguro
5th Cotrim of Figueiredo

None of this was confirmed on the day that counts, the election day:
1st António José Seguro
2nd André Ventura
3rd Cotrim of Figueiredo
4th Gouveia e Melo
5th Marques Mendes

None on the right “step”.

But there is another, even greater divergence: the numbers, the percentages.

Except in the case of Ventura, only Cotrim was significantly close to reality: 14,4% in the survey, 16% in the elections.

But the others: Brands Mendes would have 18,3% and in the end it was left behind 11,30%, Gouveia e Melo lowered from the supposed 17,3% from the poll to the real ones 12,32%.

The biggest discrepancy occurs even in the winner of the first round: António José Seguro convinced 31,11% of voters. No survey predicted this value, by the way; but this specific one, from Aximage at Chega’s request, placed Seguro with 16,8% of voting intentions. It’s practically half of reality.

It should be noted that this survey was already carried out in January. Between days 1 and 6. Interviews with 800 people, with a margin of error of 3.5%.

Aximage assures that it was a survey like the others: “The survey you refer to was carried out by Aximage in compliance with all methodological, deontological and legal rules”, reads a clarification sent to ZAP.