The senator and pre-candidate for the Presidency of the Republic, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), in recent weeks has intensified an offensive to establish himself as the main bridge between Bolsonarism and the evangelical electorate, but has encountered resistance.
According to interlocutors, influential pastors answer phone calls, accept reserved conversations and maintain open channels with the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, but avoid any public gesture that appears to anticipate a succession.
The assessment circulating in the segment is that the senator does not yet have enough political density to lead the conservative field in 2026 and, therefore, his attempt to present himself as the natural heir is encountering resistance. When contacted, Flávio did not speak out.
The obstacle occurs at a time when a relevant part of the evangelical milieu has insisted on an alternative to reorganize the right: a ticket with the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), and the former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), as vice president.
Behind the scenes, the combination is described as electorally more competitive and with greater capacity to mobilize different niches, which has worked, in practice, as an additional brake on the advancement of Flávio’s project.
The duo’s defense gained traction in the segment after Michelle and Tarcísio’s articulation in the Federal Supreme Court regarding Bolsonaro’s request for house arrest, a movement read by religious leaders as a gesture of “protection” and construction of a politically sustainable way out for the group. Interlocutors claim that Bolsonaro’s transfer to Papudinha reinforced the image of Michelle as a bridge with the base and of Tarcísio as an option with less rejection and capacity for dialogue outside the harshest Bolsonarism. The reading that circulates among pastors is that the search for an outcome that alleviates the former president’s situation, even without fully responding to the request for domicile, worked as a sign of strength and political coordination, increasing the appeal of a composition between the two for 2026.
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In this context, Flávio tries to gain space in the evangelical environment by going to events and in behind-the-scenes conversations. The senator’s strategy has been to seek dialogue with names of national prominence and great reach, capable of “cancelling” his entry into broader networks in the evangelical segment.
The first target was pastor Silas Malafaia. According to interlocutors, Flávio called the religious leader with the aim of arranging a dinner and opening a more structured channel, but the attempt was unsuccessful. The assessment among allies is that Malafaia was willing to talk, but avoided giving any signal that could be interpreted as endorsement.
The same attempt was repeated with other poles. Flávio sought contact with pastor Samuel Ferreira, from the Madureira Assembly of God, and tried to build bridges with pastors close to the Universal Kingdom of God. Around the senator, the reading was that these connections could function as shortcuts for denominations with national capillarity and capacity for regional mobilization. Once again, the agenda got stuck. An ally summarized the balance as “welcome without adherence”: he answers, talks, keeps the door ajar — but doesn’t get involved.
The toughest message, however, came in the dialogue with Malafaia, who decided to record his reading of the electoral board. According to people informed about the conversation, the pastor told Flávio that the problem was not personal, but one of viability: in his assessment, the senator would have political capacity, but would not be the most competitive name today to defeat President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2026.
— I already told him: you don’t have the muscle to face this. If we want to win and defeat Lula and PT, Tarcísio is the name that has capillarity,” said Malafaia.
In the same conversation, he maintained that, from the point of view of the evangelical segment and the conservative electorate, the combination considered most viable would be Tarcísio with Michelle Bolsonaro, as it brings together capillarity and less rejection.
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The episode reinforced an assessment that has been circulating in evangelical circles linked to Bolsonarism: the willingness to preserve the bond with Bolsonaro remains, but there is caution in assuming the cost of an early succession. Interlocutors describe that leaders do not want to position themselves as guarantors of an heir before the conservative camp reaches a broader agreement. There are also those who say that the handwritten letter by Bolsonaro was not a sufficient sign that Flávio will be his representative and bet on a change of direction.
Faced with difficulties with national chiefs, allies say that Flávio began to operate on two simultaneous tracks. The first is to continue insisting on presence and dialogue with churches, trying to consolidate its image as a bridge between Bolsonarism and the segment. The second is to set up its own environment in Brasília to avoid political isolation, based on its closest religious structure — which includes the Community of Nations.
The senator began to attend his own church more regularly and, according to allies, found more objective support in Bishop JB Carvalho: not just religious welcome, but a willingness to help him get around and open doors. Around the senator, the assessment is that JB has been the most concrete support so far, an endorsement that is still discreet, but more consistent than that obtained with other national leaders.
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Another character in the reorganization is Bishop Robson Rodovalho, from Sara Nossa Terra, cited by allies as a spiritual advisor to the Bolsonaro group. Rodovalho was authorized to provide religious assistance to the former president during his period of imprisonment and maintains dialogue with the family. The rapprochement with Flávio, however, remains in its initial phase and has not yet resulted in a public gesture.
— It hasn’t been to my church yet. We agreed to talk after January 25th. He is welcome — said Rodovalho.
The bishop considered that, although Flávio’s movement is moving towards a candidacy, the scenario is still open and could undergo internal rearrangements. He also expressed the assessment that the segment seeks a point of balance for 2026 without fracture: for him, the ideal candidate would be Tarcísio with Michelle, as he appears as “unbeatable” in research, but the final configuration is still uncertain.
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When defending caution, Rodovalho maintained that it is still early for public declarations of support and that the evangelical milieu avoids being divided.
— I argue that we walk together until we find a point of balance and common agreement. The segment may not split. It’s too early to declare support — he concluded.
