The Brazilian real estate market entered 2025 with a pace of expansion driven by popular housing. Until October, the sector registered a historic record for launches, both in number of units and in financial value, supported almost entirely by Minha Casa, Minha Vida.
A survey by the Brazilian Association of Developers (Abrainc), in partnership with Fipe, shows that 161,709 units were launched in the period, an increase of 34.6% in the annual comparison, totaling R$59.4 billion in overall sales value. The data was released by Folha de S. Paulo.
Most of this growth came from the federal government’s housing program. Of the new units placed on the market, 138,985 belong to Minha Casa, Minha Vida, equivalent to 85.9% of the total.
In financial terms, the program’s launches reached R$34.8 billion, highlighting the weight of public subsidies and targeted credit in the current dynamics of the sector.
Outside the popular segment, performance was more restrained. Medium and high-end properties totaled 22,724 units launched until October, growth of 14.3% compared to the same period in the previous year.
Despite the increase in volume, the highlight was the value: R$24.5 billion in launches, an increase of 42.5%, reflecting higher prices and projects with a higher average ticket.
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Sales, however, did not keep up with the same speed as supply. In the year to October, the sector sold 159,357 units, an increase of just 2.3% on an annual basis, with revenues of R$53.3 billion, an increase of 4.3%.
The balance between supply and demand was maintained mainly by Minha Casa, Minha Vida, which registered growth of 8.6% in the number of units sold and 9.7% in value, totaling R$29.5 billion.
In the medium and high-end segments, the scenario was one of adjustment. Sales fell 17.9% in volume, to 28,756 units, while the value sold fell 1.1%, to R$21.7 billion. According to Abrainc, the combination of high interest rates and more expensive financing led developers to prioritize reducing inventories, after an intense cycle of launches in recent years.
The entity’s assessment is that this movement is typical of transition phases of the real estate cycle. With the cost of credit still putting pressure on demand outside the subsidized segment, companies are concentrating their efforts on selling projects that have already been launched, waiting for clearer signs of a fall in interest rates to resume investments in new, higher standard projects.
In the case of Minha Casa, Minha Vida, the reading is different. The expansion of the program and the measures adopted by the government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) to reinforce housing financing created an environment of accelerated expansion of supply.
The sector’s expectation is that, with the increase in launches, sales will follow this pace in the coming months, maintaining the program as the main driver of growth in the Brazilian real estate market.
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