A wing of the government began to insist on the pre-candidacy of the governor of Goiás, for the Presidency of the Republic in this year’s election, despite his low performance in polls.
The venture has been considered by this group as a solution that frees the party from supporting the senator, avoiding erosion of the president’s base, which could harm the party in PT states. Party leaders defend the release of support in the second round.
Caiado spoke with Flávio in December. According to interlocutors, the senator tried to convince the governor to join forces against Lula. He heard that they would only be together in the second round against the PT member. The Goiano man has told allies that his candidacy is irreversible.
At União Brasil, the idea of keeping Caiado’s name has precedent. In 2022, the party adopted a similar strategy to today’s Podemos de Mato Grosso do Sul. At the time, it received just 0.5% of the votes in the first round, and members were free to choose between Lula or Bolsonaro in the second round.
Despite Lula in 2025, União Brasil continues to have one foot in the government. Today three ministers occupy the Esplanada with the seal of the party, without recognition of formal appointment: Waldez Góes (Integration and Regional Development), Frederico Siqueira Filho (Communications) and Gustavo Feliciano (Tourism).
In December, Lula’s rapprochement with the party was sealed. The wing of the Union that supported his nomination understands that electoral survival in the Northeast in this year’s election can be facilitated by association with Lula. Furthermore, they consider that the PT member has a high chance of being re-elected, and it is strategic to leave the door open for participation in a possible next term.
The focus of União Brasil, as well as the other parties in the center, is . The division of electoral and party funds is calculated mainly through the votes and seats won in the dispute for Congress. In this sense, avoiding attracting the rejection of Lula and Flávio to the party is a way to avoid harming proportional tickets.
União Brasil is in a federation with that of the senator (PI), which forces the parties to work as one in this year’s election. The PP tries to take the alliance to Flávio’s platform. Ciro Nogueira was Minister of the Civil House in the Jair Bolsonaro (PL) government and, for allies, could be the vice president on the ticket of the former president’s son.
PP leaders heard by the Sheet remain resistant to Caiado. They indicate that the preferred path in the party is to support Flávio in the first round or to free each member once and for all to align themselves with the candidate they deem most interesting in the race for the Presidency.
The Progressive Union federation aims to elect 120 deputies. They will have one, the largest in the ranking of parties, according to a preliminary study by the 1º de Maio Foundation, from the Solidariedade party.
That of Gilberto Kassab, another giant from the center, adopts the same strategy rehearsed by União. The party has three ministries, these recognized as formal nominations, but maintains the pre-candidacy of the governor of Paraná, Ratinho Júnior, for the Presidency. The idea of the acronym is not to harm its highlights from the South-Southeast axis, which are more aligned with Bolsonarism, or those from the Northeast, which have historically made alliances with the PT.
The one released last Wednesday (14) again showed Lula at the forefront of the 2026 presidential race, in addition to Flávio’s consolidation in second place.
In one of the scenarios researched in the first round, Lula has 38% of voting intentions, while Flávio has 31% and Caiado has 5%. Renan Santos (Mission) has 2%, the same score as Aldo Rebelo (DC). Blanks and nulls make up 14%, while undecideds make up 8%.
The survey was carried out from January 8th to 11th. There were 2,004 face-to-face interviews with Brazilians aged 16 or over. The estimated margin of error is two percentage points.
