In an eventual scenario, if he runs for Presidency of the Republic in 2026, the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad (PT), would lead the first round in projections against the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), and senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ). This is what the most recent AtlasIntel Bloomberg survey, released this Wednesday morning (21), shows.
In the simulation in which he faces Flávio Bolsonaro, Haddad registers 41.5% of voting intentions, against 35.4% for the senator. The difference of just over six percentage points puts the minister ahead in a scenario of direct confrontation between PT and Bolsonarism, even though Flávio maintains a competitive performance.
In another scenario against Tarcísio de Freitas, identified as a possible opponent of the minister in a dispute for the government of São Paulo, Haddad increases his advantage, with 42%, while the current governor registers 28.9%, a difference of 13.1 percentage points. The result suggests greater difficulty for the governor in nationalizing his electorate in a presidential contest.
The AtlasIntel survey interviewed 5,418 voters between January 15th and 20th and is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number BR-02804/2026. The margin of error is one percentage point, plus or minus.
Check out the scenarios:
Scenario 1
- Fernando Haddad (PT) – 41,5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) – 35.4%
- Ronaldo Caiado (União) – 5.2%
- Romeu Zema (New) – 3.3%
- Eduardo Leite (PSD) – 2.6%
- Aldo Rebelo (DC) – 1.1%
Scenario 2
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- Fernando Haddad (PT) – 42%
- Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) – 28.9%
- Ronaldo Caiado (União) – 5%
- Ratinho Jr (PSD) – 4.9%
- Romeu Zema (New) – 3.8%
- Renan Santos (Mission) – 3.6%
- Aldo Rebelo (DC) – 0.7%
