The Minister of Education (PT), after stating that he may leave the department in the first months of this year, is trying to strengthen the candidacy for re-election of the governor of Ceará, Elmano de Freitas (PT), not only as a way of supporting an ally. Camilo also seeks to reduce the chances of the president (PT) putting him in the election.
Elected in the first round in 2022, Elmano has appeared behind (PSDB) in polls of voting intentions for the Government of Ceará. Lula is following the situation because he needs a strong platform in the state to help him get votes in the national election.
An Ipsos-Ipec survey released last month showed Ciro with 44% of voting intentions. Elmano appears with 34%. The same survey shows that 59% approve of the governor’s management. The margin of error is three percentage points.
Ciro has articulated the support of Bolsonarists in the state, such as federal deputy André Fernandes (PL-CE).
The assessment, at Palácio do Planalto, is that the president will be able to remove Elmano from the dispute and put Camilo in the election for the Ceará government if he concludes, in the coming months, that this is the only chance for his political group not to lose in the state.
The Minister of Education told journalists on Monday (19) that he may leave the government early, in time to be disqualified for this year’s education. He stated, however, that this movement would be to support Elmano.
“I want to say clearly that my candidate will be Elmano de Freitas, to be re-elected governor of the state of Ceará, and President Lula to be re-elected,” he said.
The Minister of Education has been under pressure for months from allies to withdraw from the federal government in time to be able to contest the election – the deadline is at least six months before the vote, that is, until April.
Camilo indicated around last November that he would make the move. The signals were given a few weeks after it became clear, in Ceará politics, that he needed to be a candidate for governor.
The minister, however, shows his allies that he does not want to run for governor again. He is one of the President of the Republic’s most highly rated assistants and one of those tipped to be Lula’s successor after his retirement.
Both the president’s and the minister’s allies believe that he would only run for the Ceará government upon an express order from Lula.
Ceará allies of the president interviewed privately by the report credit the results of the polls to the governor’s focus on PT voters and a relationship they consider distant between Elmano and the state’s mayors. People from the governor’s closest circle believe that his dialogue with the municipalities is good.
Replacing candidates, if Lula decides to do so, has the potential to cause wear and tear among PT members. The governor has the support of local party leaders. Furthermore, it is unusual for a first-term Chief Executive not to be able to run for re-election for his party.
An ally of the Ceará government, senator Cid Gomes (-CE) told the reporter that he thought the pressure on Elmano was exaggerated. His reasoning is that the polls show Ciro, his brother, ahead at this moment because he appears as a consensus candidate among opponents. According to Cid, this scenario should change between now and the election, with more right-wing candidates coming forward and dividing the electorate.
The senator also said that the Minister of Education leaving office could be harmful to Elmano.
“If he leaves, that’s terrible for Elmano. Camilo, as he was an excellent governor, came out very highly rated, he still remains a shadow for Governor Elmano. Now, if he leaves the ministry, he stops being a shadow and becomes a ghost”, declared the senator.
Even outside the state government, the minister is sought out to close his group’s main political agreements.
At least two parties have approached him in recent months to try to obtain one of the senatorial candidate spots on the ticket that will contest the October election. Camilo’s group, however, already has an alliance in place with the PSB – the likely candidates are deputies Eunício Oliveira, the main emedebista leader in the state, and Júnior Mano, close to Cid Gomes.
Lula monitors the movements of his allies in Ceará not only because of the possible re-election of a supporter as governor of the state, but also because of his own continuity at the head of the Planalto.
The president received 70% of Ceará’s votes in the second round in 2022 and needs to maintain his good result to reduce the risk of losing this year’s re-election. In the last dispute, , with 54%.
