The virtual retail market grew by around 20% in Brazil in 2025. The expansion was four times greater than the growth of offline sales channels (around 5%). According to Itaú BBA, Shopee, Amazon and Mercado Livre alone represent around 70% of this entire market.
Competition between the three companies has also helped to consolidate the digital sales market in Brazil, with heavy investments in marketing, price incentives and logistics. In return, the migration of consumers from physical to online continues to grow. Analysts’ forecast suggests that this growth will reach 22% by the end of 2025 — 2 percentage points more compared to the previous year.
Amid this steady growth in the sector, Mercado Livre has surfed with precision, expanding its own business with an increase estimated at 31%. For this reason, BBA maintained its Buy recommendation for the stock, with a target price of U$2,850.
Everything you need to know to protect your wallet
According to the report, in the last year, online penetration grew by 14% and all players seem well positioned to continue taking advantage of the development. The growth strategy, which has been replicated among the three main companies, includes everything from increasing variety to expanding distribution centers and improving shipping — in terms of price and time.
Opportunities and advantages
Mercado Livre has led the expansion in the storage area, with approximately 2.2 million m². Furthermore, the company gained an advantage in the logistics sector, due to its fulfillment (which takes care of everything from receiving the product to delivery to the customer), the company’s main competitive differentiator.
According to analysts’ assessment, the main growth opportunities for Mercado Livre still appear to be in five categories: Clothing, Food, Health and Beauty, Electronics and Auto Parts. The highlight continues with the areas of Clothing, Food and Health and Beauty. According to the report, each grew between 35% and 40%, above the company average. At the same time, the Auto Parts category has kept pace with the company’s growth.
Despite recent gains in the sector, online penetration in the country still lags behind competitors such as the US, China and the UK. Respectively, with 27%, 36% and 28%. For BBA analysts, the current scenario allows the three main companies to expand together, less as a competition and more in a market cooperation scheme.
