The Palácio do Planalto’s strategy is to use the Esplanada as an electoral springboard to expand the allied base in the National Congress
The proximity of the legal deadline for non-compatibilization should provoke a series of changes in the government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT). Until April, at least 17 of the 38 ministers are considering leaving their positions because of the elections, as required by law.
The Palácio do Planalto’s strategy is to use the Esplanada as an electoral springboard to expand the allied base in the National Congress, in a possible fourth term for Lula.
One of the most sensitive movements involves the Minister of the Institutional Relations Secretariat, Gleisi Hoffmann (PT-PR), who must leave her position to compete for a seat in the Senate in Paraná. The succession in the portfolio, responsible for the government’s political articulation, is still uncertain. According to the traditional design, the chair tends to be occupied by the executive secretary, diplomat Marcelo Costa, however, it is not yet known who will take on the role.
Initially, Gleisi considered running for re-election to the Chamber of Deputies, a position from which she is on leave. The change of plan occurred after a direct request from Lula. The president assesses that the candidacy for the Senate is strategic to strengthen the PT’s presence in the reviewing House and face the plan of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) to form a majority in the Senate with the power to advance impeachment proceedings against ministers of the Federal Supreme Court (STF).
Lula also has plans for the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad (PT-SP). Although Haddad has already declared on several occasions that he does not intend to run in the elections, the president wants him to run for the Senate for São Paulo or for Palácio dos Bandeirantes. So far, the most popular name to head the economic team in the event of Haddad’s departure is the department’s executive secretary, Dario Durigan.
“I said on every occasion that I did not intend to run in 2026. That goes for any position,” said Haddad on Monday, 19, in an interview with UOL News.
Another minister who is expected to leave the government is the head of the Civil House, Rui Costa (PT-BA), one of Lula’s main assistants. He is tipped to run for a seat in the Senate or even return to the race for governor of Bahia, despite the current governor, Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT), being in his first term and being able to run for re-election. The executive secretary of the Civil House, Miriam Belchior, should take charge of the department.
The Minister of Planning, Simone Tebet (MDB), must also leave her position and could be replaced by the special advisor to the Civil House Bruno Moretti. Simone’s intention is to run again for a seat in the Senate. Since supporting Lula in the 2022 second round, however, she has lost strength in her stronghold in Mato Grosso do Sul, a state with a conservative profile. Given this scenario, allies believe that the minister could run for the Senate in São Paulo.
The Communications Secretary, Sidônio Palmeira, is also expected to step down from his position, but to coordinate Lula’s re-election campaign. Responsible for the communication strategy in the 2022 race, he will not run for elected office and, therefore, is not subject to the legal deadline for disqualification.
The Minister of Racial Equality, Anielle Franco (PT), must compete for a seat in the Chamber of Deputies for the first time and, therefore, must also leave her position by April, within the legal deadline for disqualification.
In the São Paulo scenario, if governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) decides to run for Palácio do Planalto, Lula is evaluating the possibility of launching vice-president Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) into the government of São Paulo. For now, the president is working on maintaining the ticket, but admits that the design may change depending on the political scenario.
Even if he remains vice-presidency, Alckmin will have to leave command of the Ministry of Development, Industry and Commerce. The tendency is for the vacancy to be occupied by executive secretary Márcio Elias Rosa.
First Lady Rosângela da Silva, known as Janja, also defends that the Minister of Culture, Margareth Menezes, runs for federal deputy. Renowned singer, Margareth was invited to join the PT and is evaluating the proposal, but has not yet given a definitive answer
The Minister of Education, Camilo Santana (PT), a licensed senator, has been under pressure to run for the government of Ceará if Ciro Gomes is a candidate. Camilo, however, denies this intention and states that he must work in the re-election campaign of governor Elmano de Freitas (PT). He does not need to run for re-election to the Senate, as he was elected in 2022 and has a mandate until 2031.
Other ministers have also signaled that they will leave the government to enter the electoral dispute. The head of Cities, Jader Filho (MDB), informed that he intends to run for a seat in the Chamber of Deputies for Pará. In the same group are André de Paula (PSD), Minister of Fisheries; Silvio Costa Filho (Republicans), Ports and Airports; and Waldez Góes (PDT), Integração, who have also communicated to Planalto their intention to leave their positions.
At the Ministry of Labor, Luiz Marinho (PT) even evaluated a candidacy for re-election to the Chamber of Deputies, but withdrew the plan in December last year. In a post on social media, he stated that the decision was taken following a request from President Lula. In place of Marinho, the PT will have as its candidate the current president of the ABC Metalworkers Union, Moisés Selerges.
“This was not a simple decision, it was not an easy decision,” admitted Marinho in a video posted on social media. “Being a candidate again was a legitimate desire, built together with you. But, at this moment, what is at stake is bigger than a personal project. The most important thing is the continuity of the national project led by President Lula.”
In the environmental area, minister Marina Silva (Rede-SP), who is expected to change parties, is also mentioned as a possible candidate for the Senate for São Paulo, which would require her removal from office within the legal deadline.
The Minister of Transport, Renan Filho (MDB), confirmed that he will leave the government to compete for command of the State of Alagoas in this year’s elections.
The leader of Indigenous Peoples, Sônia Guajajara (PSOL), is working to seek re-election as federal deputy for São Paulo. The Minister of Agriculture, Carlos Fávaro (PSD), plans to run again for a seat in the Senate for Mato Grosso.
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