The Brazilian government assesses that the European Parliament’s decision to support the judicialization of the agreement between Mercosur and the European Union (EU) does not change Brasília’s strategy: the priority will continue to be the approval of the treaty in the National Congress. According to interlocutors involved in the topic, obstacles like the one that occurred this Wednesday were already expected in a process of this size and, even if there is delay, they do not put at risk the understanding reached after more than two decades of negotiation.
Signed less than a week ago in Paraguay, the agreement entered the most sensitive phase of its political processing precisely at the moment when it began to be internalized by the countries involved. In Brazil and the other members of Mercosur, the assessment is that moving quickly towards internal ratification reinforces political pressure on the European Union, by exposing the cost of keeping the treaty pending indefinitely on the European side.
According to an important member of the Lula government, rapid approval by the Brazilian Congress tends to create political embarrassment in Brussels. In this assistant’s opinion, the initiative to take the agreement to court may cause delays, but does not change the outcome of the process. The Palácio do Planalto’s plan is to approve the topic in Congress when it returns from recess, in February.
Opportunity with security!
The predominant reading in the government is that, once the internal steps have been completed by Mercosur, it will be up to European institutions to manage the resistance of some national governments. Although they recognize the possibility of occasional impasses, interlocutors rule out the hypothesis of reversing the understanding, considered irreversible after formal signing.
The expectation is that the pressure to unlock the agreement will come not only from the European Commission, which has institutional instruments to conduct the process, but also from the internal game between the bloc’s countries. Diplomatic interlocutors assess that, as Mercosur advances and demonstrates commitment to the treaty, the lack of definition will become politically unsustainable for Europeans, leading to cross-pressure among the EU members themselves.
The European Parliament’s movement occurs in a context of strong opposition to the agreement in some countries, especially in France. The French government leads opposition to the treaty, arguing that trade opening would increase competition for South American agricultural products, especially meat and grains. Despite this, Paris was defeated in the vote held at the European Commission, following Italy’s decision to support the agreement, changing the internal balance.
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In addition to France, Poland, Austria, Ireland and Hungary voted against the text and are now seeking a new attempt in the European Parliament to block its ratification.
The agreement had been approved by the European Council last month and was subsequently forwarded to the European Parliament for analysis and deliberation, a step that precedes its formal ratification in the bloc. The process in the European Legislature began to concentrate resistance from governments and sectors opposed to the treaty, but, for the Brazilian government, it is part of an institutional rite already foreseen in the process.
The Mercosur–European Union agreement provides for the creation of one of the largest free trade areas in the world, with a gradual reduction in tariffs, expanded access to markets and common rules for the trade of goods and services. The text also includes commitments in areas such as sustainable development, the environment, political cooperation and strengthening multilateralism. Its entry into force, however, will be done in stages.
The strictly commercial part only depends on the approval of the European Parliament, by a simple majority. In Mercosur, the agreement comes into force as national parliaments ratify the text. The political pillar, which involves broader institutional commitments, needs to be submitted to the Legislatures of the 27 European Union countries. For the Brazilian government, the focus now is on fulfilling its part of the process and advancing the internal process, betting that European obstacles will be overcome over time, as occurred throughout the negotiation.
