For decades, progressive elites have experienced a kind of optical illusion, like those that make travelers see non-existent oases in the middle of the desert. There were eight years of Presidency in the hands of reformist leadership from the center, followed by a decade and a half of governments led by the center-left. All this plus a very advanced Constitution in terms of individual guarantees and social rights — seemed to confirm that, after 20 years of authoritarianism, Brazil was transforming into a politically airy country.
It is true that the congressional elections told a different story. There, the various right-wing currents have always formed an entrenched majority. But, because they operated under the baton of the pragmatic “centrão”, they were seen as forces of delay, unavoidable partners in coalitions in the present, destined to be overcome later on.
The political crisis of the 2010s, the emergence of an organized and mobilized extreme right in the streets and Jair Bolsonaro’s victory in 2018 revealed the amount of optimism towards the country, which nurtured the left and the democratic center. The electoral disappearance of the PSDB and the tight result of the 2022 presidential elections showed that the right-wing field is vast and that the changes that occurred in it were not a fortuitous phenomenon.
We have yet to understand the reasons for the growth of extremist right-wingism, here organized around the Bolsonaros. In any case, thanks to some good opinion studies, today we know better the size of the contingent of Brazilians who lean right-handed and how they see the world.
The website Canal Meio published the results of the survey “The Brazilian ideology”. It joins three other thought-provoking studies based on public opinion polls: “The Brazilian head, twenty years later”, by Carlos Alberto Almeida; “Invisible Brazil”, by the NGO More in Common; “Brazil in the Mirror”, by Felipe Nunes.
The research now made public is ambitious: it seeks to verify to what extent ordinary Brazilians identify with ideologies present in the national tradition of political thought and in public debate. Belief systems were organized by political scientist Christian Lynch (Iesp/Uerj) into three axes: right-center-left; nationalism versus cosmopolitanism; moderation versus radicalism.
It is impossible to summarize here the wealth of information obtained, which allows us to see religion; income strata; the gender; the regional distribution of those who adhere to each of the identified belief systems. Taken together, the vast majority of Brazilians subscribe to moderate ideologies; radicals barely exceed 10%; close to 6 in 10 citizens identify with the right, a percentage close to that of those who say they are nationalists.
Ideologies only partially explain voting. Interests, passions and contingent factors are equally or more important. But knowing belief systems can be important to assert progressivism without illusions.
PS There were many times when Raul Jugmann wrote to me to comment on this column or tell me that he would share it. I will miss my reader friend; He will miss the debate of ideas that excited him so much.
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