The dispute for the em opposes an internal split over the choice of a candidate and the left’s lack of definition in relation to the complete ticket.
This year, two of the three seats in each state will be up for grabs — that is, the two with the most votes will be elected to the Senate. In São Paulo, senators Mara Gabrilli (PSD) and Giordano (no party) end their terms, while Marcos Pontes (PL), elected in 2022, will remain in office until 2031.
The deadline for party affiliations is April 6th, while the deadline for parties to define and register their candidates is August 15th. Both the president () and the former president (PL) made achieving a majority in the Senate one of their priorities in 2026.
On the left, which has PT, PSOL and PSOL as its main parties, the names that appear at the polls are (PT), (PSB), (Rede), (MDB) and (PSB). With the exception of Marina, the others are also considered to compete for Palácio dos Bandeirantes.
On the right, considering that the governor (Republicans) seeks re-election, his ticket would have the former Secretary of Security Guilherme Derrite (PP) in the Senate race and a second name that is still undefined. The former first lady (PL) tries to replace federal deputy Rosana Valle (PL).
According to the deputy’s interlocutors, it was the former first lady who suggested that the PL test the ally’s name in electoral polls. Rosana’s performance in a Paraná Pesquisas survey released in December, when she scored 8% of voting intentions, would have surprised Valdemar Costa Neto, president of the PL.
Rosana’s allies say, however, that there is a fear of entering a difficult dispute and not being elected, leaving her without a mandate.
“I know that any definition regarding 2026 involves the PL, the compositions and the appropriate moment. My focus continues to be re-election as a federal deputy and the mandate I currently hold”, said the deputy in a note sent to the report.
The open position would originally belong to the impeached federal deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL), who moved to the USA. The reporter tried to contact Eduardo, without success.
In a video published on Tuesday (20), he says that Rosana “may be the best person in the world, but she is not known”. He highlighted that the deputy did not make any publication in defense of (PL’s) presidential pre-candidacy.
Eduardo’s favorites are two of his former advisors: state deputy Gil Diniz (PL) and São Paulo councilor Sonaira Fernandes (PL). In the recording, he mentioned Gil and Sonaira as close people who did not hesitate in any vote.
Clan interlocutors say that Eduardo mentioned his preference for Gil in a letter sent to his father at the end of last year. However, the deteriorated relationship with Tarcísio weighs against the deputy, due to criticism that the governor takes positions aligned with Bolsonarism. Now against Sonaira there is the factor of electoral viability, considering that she had a timid vote for the City Council in 2024.
Eduardo also gave his opinion on the federal deputy (Novo), who has broken with the Bolsonaro family since 2024. He stated that Salles “is not a bad person, he has many qualities”, but indicated that he would not be his choice. “If I’m not going to run, I have to put someone even remotely close to me.”
Another name mentioned by the former president’s son was Mário Frias (PL), former Secretary of Culture in the Bolsonaro government. “A survey came out that placed Mario Frias very well in the second vote. I’m sure that, if he receives support from Bolsonaro, he’ll become an instant favorite,” he said.
The former secretary published this excerpt from the video on his Instagram page, thanking the former president’s son for the mention. In the report, Frias says he is not interested in positions, but that he will fulfill any mission given by the Bolsonaro family.
There is, however, one obstacle: Mario’s relationship with Michelle is bad since he publicly criticized a bill endorsed by Senator Damares Alves (Republicanos-DF), an ally of the former first lady.
Federal deputy Marco Feliciano (PL) is also considered to run, who stated that he is available to the party. He has a history of collaboration with the former president in acting against the so-called “gay kit”, but, in 2022, Bolsonaro decided to support astronaut Marcos Pontes (PL) for the Senate, to the detriment of Feliciano.
Another name mentioned by Bolsonarists is that of the vice-mayor of the capital of São Paulo, Colonel Ricardo Mello Araújo (PL).
INDEFINITION ON THE LEFT
In relation to the PT, in addition to the historical electoral difficulties in a state considered conservative, it will be a challenge to provide a good platform for Lula in São Paulo, since the main bets resist contesting the Palácio dos Bandeirantes, considering that a victory for Tarcísio is considered practically certain.
Alckmin has told allies that he intends to run again as vice president, ruling out the possibility of governing the state for the fifth time and also running for the Senate.
Haddad states that he does not want to be a candidate and intends to work on Lula’s presidential campaign. PT members interviewed by the report argue that he runs for Bandeirantes to repeat the feat of 2022, in which he lost the election, but reached an important level of votes for Lula. Others, however, want to spare him from a possible fourth consecutive defeat in elections.
Márcio França and Simone Tebet are considered for both the government and the Senate. França told the Panel that he maintains his plan to be a PSB candidate for government even with the possible affiliation of the head of Planning to the party.
Today in , Tebet is negotiating a change of party and state, migrating from Mato Grosso do Sul to São Paulo. The minister’s allies say that she could represent a greater obstacle for Tarcísio, but that her role will be defined by Lula.
“Tactically, we have to launch two strong names from the left so that the voter’s second vote does not go to a candidate from the right. They would be two unified names, in a coordinated way”, says deputy Jilmar Tatto, vice-president of the PT.
In addition to Marina Silva, PT members are considering names such as ministers Alexandre Padilha (Health) and Luiz Marinho (Labor).
Like Tebet, Marina also needs to find a new party to make her candidacy viable — the PT wants to have her back in its party, but PSB and PSOL are also options.
