The departure of Heineken’s global CEO, Dolf van den Brink, announced at the beginning of last week, occurs at an adverse time for the Brazilian beer market, marked by falling volumes and pressure on margins. Analysts add even more water to the company’s beer by reigniting the debate on the sustainability of investments and the profitability challenges of operations in the country.
The timing of the change of command draws attention because it coincides with a phase in which Heineken is keeping its foot on the accelerator in capacity expansion in Brazil, with emphasis on the Passos (MG) plant, which could add around 5 million hectoliters per year initially.
At the same time, in the third quarter of last year, Heineken saw its global beer volume fall 4.3% compared to the same period in 2024, with a sharper decline in the Americas (7.4%). In the balance sheet, the company also indicated that organic operating profit growth in 2025 should be closer to the bottom of the projection range released to the market, of 4% to 8%.
The weakening of the market, however, is not exclusive to Heineken. According to the Brazilian Beer Industry Association (CervBrasil), the Brazilian beer market accumulated a drop of between 6.5% and 7% in volume consumption from January to September 2025, compared to the same period in 2024.
The entity’s general director, Paulo Petroni, estimates that the 2025 data should close with a retraction of between 5% and 6% in volume. “With IBGE’s preliminary indicators, we did not see a recovery in October and November, so we expect a drop from 15.5 billion liters in 2024 to something around 14.7 billion this year, which is quite representative,” he stated.
With the weaker market, Citi analyst Renata Cabral believes that the leadership transition at Heineken works as a warning sign for the operation in Brazil. “The company continues to add capacity at a time of exceptionally weak volumes, which tends to lengthen the return period on investments and raises questions about the pace of expansion in the country,” he stated.
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Market sources believe that low beer volumes in Latin America, especially in Brazil, helped reinforce pressure for Dolf van den Brink to leave command of Heineken.
Consumption
The main factor behind the retraction was the smaller number of occasions favorable to consumption. “We had fewer sunny days, lower temperatures than in 2024 and few public holidays. This directly impacts beer consumption,” said Petroni.
CervBrasil also highlights the greater competition for consumer discretionary spending, with sports betting gaining space in the budget. “As the beer ticket is small, part of this money ended up being directed to betting,” said the executive. The deterioration in disposable income, high interest rates and gradual changes in consumption habits also put pressure on demand.
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NielsenIQ data reinforces this diagnosis. According to the company, the volume of beer sold to the end consumer fell by around 4% between January and November 2025, compared to the same period in the previous year. For the director of Industry Insights at NielsenIQ, Gabriel Fagundes, the retraction is not associated with a drop in purchase frequency, but rather with a reduction in the quantity consumed per occasion.
“Consumers continue to buy beer, but take fewer liters at a time, as a way of adjusting their budget,” he said.
Price transfer
In a weakened consumption environment, Heineken maintained frozen adjustments since April 2024 as a way of preserving volumes, but resumed increases in July 2025, with an average adjustment of around 6%, signaling a change in stance.
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For the Citi analyst, the long period without adjustments already indicated a tighter environment in the premium segment. In this context, Cabral assesses that Ambev’s premium portfolio may be relatively more competitive, although he highlights that the weakness in volumes reduces, for now, the relevance of the dispute for market share. “Right now, everyone is fighting over a smaller cake,” he said.
On the consumption side, 2026 tends to bring some additional stimuli, such as the World Cup, more holidays, weaker bases for comparison and the prospect of warmer weather. According to Fagundes, from NielsenIQ, these factors can alleviate pressure on the sector, but do not indicate a quick turnaround in volume. “The expectation is for some improvement, much more linked to the increase in consumption occasions than to a recomposition of family budgets”, he stated.
