The Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee holds its first meeting in 2026 to define the basic interest rate. The market expectation is for Selic to remain at 15%. The rate has been at this level since June 2025, the highest level in almost 20 years.
According to analysts, there is no expectation of a cut at this meeting. The assessment is that a possible reduction should only be discussed from March onwards, at the second Copom meeting of the year.
Economists point to uncertainties in the domestic and foreign scenario. In Brazil, the main concern is the growth of public debt, currently around 70% of GDP, projected to reach 78% in 2028.
Abroad, geopolitical conflicts and international tensions increase the perception of risk. The scenario leads central banks to adopt a more cautious stance.
The possible maintenance of high interest rates worries the productive sector. Selic directly influences the cost of credit, making loans and financing more expensive and making new investments more difficult.
Despite pressure from businesspeople and the government for a rate reduction, inflation still far from the target keeps the Central Bank on alert.
According to the Focus bulletin, inflation measured by the IPCA should end 2026 at around 4%. The target center is 3%.
Experts assess that the BC continues to map risks for the year, especially in a scenario marked by presidential elections and fiscal uncertainty.
The market expectation is that, if there are cuts throughout the year, the Selic will end 2026 at around 12.25%. For 2027, the projection is for interest rates at 10.5%. In 2028, the estimate is 10%.
*With information from Júlia Fermino
