December 2025 disappointed and was the worst month of the year for food retail. Food sales normally flow during this period without the need for extra effort on the part of supermarkets. The end-of-year festivities and the injection of resources from the 13th salary are responsible for boosting business.
However, last year – a decisive factor for general inflation to end the year below the target ceiling of 4.5% – sales performance was contrary to expectations, according to a survey by Scanntech, a data intelligence platform for retail and industry. The company monitors 13.5 billion tickets per year at supermarket checkouts. That is, sales are what actually happen.
According to the survey, food retail sales in December last year, including all channels – grocery stores, supermarkets, hypermarkets and cash and carry stores – fell 5.5% in units compared to the same month in 2024.
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The decline in revenue was smaller, 2.5%, on the same basis of comparison. This is because the price per unit rose 3.2% in the period. Even so, December’s performance draws attention because it was the only month in the entire year 2025 that recorded a drop in food sales revenue in the annual comparison.
It also contrasts with the pattern observed over the last three years, observes Felipe Passarelli, head of market intelligence at Scanntech. During this period, the months of December always showed growth in revenue compared to the previous year.
“The drop in food sales in December 2025 compared to December 2024 reinforces a structural movement observed throughout the year”, says Passarelli.
Caution
He argues that, despite the slowdown in inflation and the increase in the average Brazilian income, consumers remained cautious when going shopping, especially given the increase in debt, which may be associated, among other factors, with the increase in betting, online betting. They can move more than R$30 billion per month, according to data from the Central Bank.
Fabio Bentes, chief economist at the National Confederation of Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC), highlights that the increase in consumption of services weighs on this performance. Services compete for the share of the budget that Brazilians spend on purchasing goods, such as food.
“Today, free services (excluding monitored ones) account for almost half of families’ expenses (48.7%), says Bentes. In December 2008, services represented a third (33.6%). On the other hand, the share of spending on goods in the family budget, which was 66.4% in December 2008, fell to 51.3% in December last year, according to data adjusted by the economist based on the IBGE’s Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA).
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Passarelli adds other factors inhibiting food purchases, such as high interest rates and the deterioration of consumer confidence. “Inflation continues to be the main reason for concern for around half of Brazilians and the perception that ‘money doesn’t make any money’ weighs directly on purchasing decisions”, he assesses.
Given this scenario, says the executive, consumers adjust purchasing volumes, prioritize the most essential items and intensify the search for promotions.
Inventories accumulated in December due to frustrated sales and the poor performance in the first half of January are leading supermarket chains to carry out aggressive promotions to turn the tide.
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Supermarket chains declined to comment, but the report visited stores and found a large volume of items on offer.
The Hirota chain, for example, with 17 stores spread across the metropolitan region of São Paulo, reported that it had scheduled a large inventory burn between last Wednesday and today.
According to the company’s director, Hélio Freddi, more than 150 items will be on offer, with discounts of up to 50% on the price. “We are going to offer strong, opinion-forming items, such as eggs, coffee powder, beer, meat”, explains the executive. With the promotion, the expectation is to reach the sales target. “We are 4% below the January target, which has been a terrible month.”
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Bills
Expenses on enrollment and school supplies, expenses on paying taxes, such as IPTU (Urban Property and Territorial Tax) and IPVA (Motor Vehicle Ownership Tax), and insecurity regarding the market, despite the stable economy, increase consumers’ fear of spending, says Freddi.
He reports that the sales difficulties faced in December and January are a common scenario for the supermarket sector, which needs to raise cash to pay off ordinary expenses. “Everyone has the same problem.”
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The information is from the newspaper The State of S. Paulo.
