Democrats in the United States House of Representatives begin 2026 with the political scenario in their favor: favorable polls, voters dissatisfied with Donald Trump’s second term and a history of opposition victories in midterm elections.
The challenge is to maintain this momentum for the next 10 months, in the hope that it turns into a wave that brings them to power in at least one house of Congress.
The consequences for the White House are enormous. A Democratic-led House of Representatives would dilute Trump’s power, forcing him to rely even more on presidential decrees. The House would also step up investigations into his administration and perhaps provoke impeachment — a possibility Trump recently warned his Republican colleagues about, although there is little chance the Senate would vote to remove him from office.
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“It’s pretty clear that the hurdles for Republicans are strong, given Trump’s approval rating, voters’ continued frustration with the state of the economy and how the president has managed it, and what appear to be significant enthusiasm advantages for Democratic candidates,” said Amy Walter, editor in chief of the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan organization.
Walter’s post recently pointed to a change in the outcome of 18 House of Representatives races, favoring Democrats and bringing the number of seats considered Democratic strongholds to 189, compared to 186 for Republicans. A party needs 218 seats to win a majority.
Additionally, a New York Times and University of Siena poll released this week showed that a majority of voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of major issues, with less than a third saying the country is better off than when he took office a year ago. This provoked indignation from the president, who declared on social media that “false and fraudulent research should be, in practice, a crime”.
Democrats are betting they can maintain their advantage with a greater focus on affordability, following some bigger-than-expected election victories in November. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries expressed confidence in this approach at a recent press conference, stating, “The Trump administration has been a complete disaster for the economy, and the American people know it.”
A central element of the Democratic strategy will be to highlight Republican opposition to the extension of Obamacare health subsidies, which are raising health insurance costs for more than 20 million people, and to cuts to Medicaid that will take effect after the election. Democrats are also criticizing Trump’s tariff regime, arguing that it is consumers who are paying for the higher taxes, a claim corroborated by a recent study.
“Trump said, ‘I’m going to cut costs on day one.’ But he’s broken one promise after another,” Suzan DelBene, chairwoman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said in an interview. “We are in a strong position to regain the majority, and we will regain the majority in 2027.”
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Trump is not standing still. He is also advancing an affordability agenda, after spending the final months of 2025 arguing that the issue was a “hoax” by Democrats. He has proposed a series of policies ranging from a ban on institutional investors buying rental properties to a cap on credit card interest rates, although details about his initiatives and how they would be implemented are still scarce.
Additionally, Republicans argue they will get a boost this tax season as many Americans will receive larger refunds due to Trump’s tax and spending bill signed into law last year.
Seniors and workers who receive tips or overtime will benefit from new or larger tax deductions. In vulnerable Northeast voting districts like those of Mike Lawler and Nick LaLota in New York, expanding the state and local tax deduction could increase refunds, particularly among high-income homeowners, by thousands of dollars.
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“We have a great track record to show for it, and as the ‘Big and Beautiful Bill’ rolls out in the first quarter, people will feel it,” House Speaker Mike Johnson said in an interview. “Republican policies are working for the people, and I think that’s reflected at the ballot box.”
Others have doubts about whether tax filing season will change the situation for Republicans. More than half of taxpayers won’t see a significant difference on their annual income tax returns, according to Adam Michel, director of tax policy studies at the Cato Institute.
Still, a lot could go wrong for Democrats.
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Data released on Friday showed that U.S. consumer confidence rose to the highest level in five months in January as Americans became more optimistic about the economy and their finances. The monthly increase in confidence was the largest since June and reflected gains in all income, age, education and political affiliation groups. And while confidence remains historically low, continued improvement could change Democrats’ strategy.
Another positive for the president is that the Republican Party will likely maintain control of the Senate due to a favorable electoral map, with few vulnerable Republicans running for re-election.
In addition, there is the robust Republican campaign fund, aided by Trump’s MAGA Inc..
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The super PAC has accumulated about $294 million, according to its latest report to the Federal Election Commission, and the president has signaled he is willing to use that money to consolidate the narrow Republican majority in the House. His PAC could boost spending by the Republican National Committee and its House and Senate campaign arms, which have already raised about $30 million more than their Democratic counterparts.
However, it is unclear whether this financial advantage will translate into Republican victories in swing districts.
MAGA Inc. spent $1.7 million supporting Republican Matt Van Epps in a special election in December to fill a vacancy in the traditionally Republican Tennessee House of Representatives after Democrats made a concerted effort to surprise voters.
The Democrats were unsuccessful, but Van Epps defeated his Democratic opponent by just 9 percentage points — a significantly smaller margin than the 21.5-point lead his predecessor, former Representative Mark Green, had in 2024.
Inflationary pressures
Regarding the economy, Trump and his fellow Republicans have repeatedly pointed out that inflation is far below its 2022 peak, often citing the price of specific products such as eggs and gasoline. At the same time, rising costs are taking their toll. In December, prices rose 2.7% compared to the previous year. Food prices rose 0.7% in a single month, the biggest increase since 2022. And home insurance for both homeowners and renters saw a record 8.2% increase over the past 12 months.
Meanwhile, the job market cooled. While layoffs remain limited, hiring has slowed and is mainly concentrated in a few sectors. Wages are rising, but not as fast as they were a few years ago.
The question is whether some of that pain will ease and, if so, whether it will help Republicans. The economy is expected to grow above 2% by the end of 2026, according to Bloomberg Economics, as long as uncertainty regarding trade policy decreases and investment in artificial intelligence accelerates. And mortgage rates, while still high, have been slowly falling.
Economic Insights
Still, voters are pessimistic about the economy. Polls show that Trump’s disapproval is related to both the cost of everyday items and his past rhetoric that affordability is a “hoax” that doesn’t deserve his full attention, Walter said.
Right now, perception of the economy matters more than actual economic data, said Kyle Kondik, editor-in-chief of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan publication produced by the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
Kondik said the 2018 midterm elections, during Trump’s first term, were difficult for House Republicans and that the perception of the economy was better then than it is now. With voters’ views becoming more stark, an improvement in the macroeconomic environment between now and November would “probably only be helpful to a certain extent” for Republicans, while Democrats’ enthusiasm for containing Trump is high, he added.
“Considering all of this, at this point everything indicates that we should have a political environment that is very favorable to Democrats,” he said.
