Michelle Bolsonaro’s articulation in the Federal Supreme Court (STF) regarding the request for house arrest for Jair Bolsonaro deepened the distance with the former president’s children and reignited the dispute around him for this year’s elections.
Interlocutors report that the former first lady sees the possibility of Bolsonaro going home as a chance to reopen the electoral debate, currently in the hands of senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), and put governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) back on the radar as an alternative. When contacted, Michelle did not comment.
The friction intensified after Bolsonaro’s transfer to Papudinha, a period in which Tarcísio withdrew from a planned visit to the former president, and Michelle expanded articulations with ministers Alexandre de Moraes and Gilmar Mendes, from the STF.
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Electoral design
Interlocutors report that, among her children, the former first lady’s move began to be read as an attempt to establish herself as an “institutional spokesperson” for Bolsonarism. The assessment is that, by speaking on behalf of the group, building bridges and projecting herself as responsible for any advances in custody, she increases her political weight.
The strategy in the STF is described by allies as a “layered” operation: first, insist on improving prison conditions; then, reinforce the need for home healthcare. Moraes has in his hands a new request presented by Bolsonaro’s defense and will provide a response after the Federal Police presents information about the medical expertise.
Within the family, however, the movement began to be treated as an instrument with a direct impact on electoral design. For the children’s allies, it is not just about alleviating the former president’s situation, but about reorganizing the right by 2026.
People close to Bolsonaro report that Michelle began to maintain internally that Flávio “pulled a coup” by positioning himself as the natural heir to Bolsonaroism and that, with the former president in prison and without daily contact with his family, space was opened for an attempt to “take over” the succession. With the return of socializing at home, Michelle could expand her influence and work for the Tarcísio solution, including positioning herself as vice-president.
Ally retreat
The governor’s name returned to the center of the debate the week he backed away from his visit to Papudinha. The formal justification for the cancellation was an agenda in São Paulo, but, on that day, Tarcísio only had internal dispatches at Palácio dos Bandeirantes. Interlocutors claim that the governor is trying to push any definition of his role in 2026 until April and avoids committing himself amid the height of the family dispute.
When contacted by GLOBO to comment on whether he would accept running in this scenario, Tarcísio denied:
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— I am a candidate for re-election.
After the cancellation, the governor is expected to visit the former president next Thursday. The rescheduling, according to people close to him, would be a way to avoid Tarcísio’s departure from Bolsonaro.
The governor’s allies claim that he is trying to shield himself and preserve room for maneuver, while segments of the right and the Centrão continue to treat his name as an electoral asset.
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The most visible reaction to Michelle’s movements has come from former Rio councilor Carlos Bolsonaro, who visited his father on Thursday. In publications on social media, he has signaled discomfort with internal movements within Bolsonarism, which allies interpret as messages to the former first lady.
In a recent publication, Carlos wrote that there is a movement aimed, “in a disguised way”, at measuring strength with Bolsonaro himself. At another point, he suggested attempts to sabotage Flávio’s project, a message seen as an attack on his stepmother. When contacted, Carlos’s office denied that Michelle was a target.
The way in which the former first lady’s speech at the STF was constructed also increased the irritation. Interlocutors report that the hearing with Moraes was organized by deputy Altineu Côrtes (PL-RJ). The children found out about the meeting after it had already taken place, which deepened the discomfort and generated internal demands on the parliamentarian.
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Start of the dispute
The crisis did not start now. An episode treated as a milestone in the internal dispute was the publication of a handwritten letter from Bolsonaro nominating Flávio as pre-candidate in December, on Christmas Day. The document began to be presented as proof of the former president’s “stamp” and used as an instrument to discipline the bench and reduce noise in the PL.
— Michelle never told me she wanted to be a candidate. I am the pre-candidate nominated by President Bolsonaro. I have a letter written and signed by him — reinforces Flávio.
Publicly, however, Michelle tries to dispel the idea that she is in a direct dispute with her stepson. In a publication addressed to Flávio, he wished that God would grant him wisdom and strength to lead his candidacy. Allies of the former president have also reiterated that Flávio’s nomination must be followed, but leave room for possible changes in the scenario.
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— We follow the orders of our captain Bolsonaro. He said he is Flávio, so he is Flávio. If there is another order later, we will follow it too – says deputy Marco Feliciano (PL-SP).
The routes that oppose family nuclei
From father to son – Flávio’s candidacy focuses on the natural heritage of Bolsonarism, based on the handwritten letter from the former president that endorses his name. But the senator still faces resistance from wings of the Centrão and evangelicals, who assess him as lacking muscle.
Pragmatism – A ticket with Tarcísio and Michelle as vice-president, according to interlocutors, is more viable due to its ability to unite groups. The former first lady seeks Bolsonaro’s house arrest to regain influence and make the governor viable as a competitive name.
